Saturday, June 19, 2010

Market up-date for the past week

Forex....loss back what I gained from Mon to Wed on Thu. And by Fri after a couple more losing trades ( stopped out ) confidence also kena "whacked" which is harder to handle than just losing money. Luckily....after looking thru what I have done "right" until Thu then what I done "wrong" on Thu and Fri, I come to the conclusion that I must get back to the forex trading basic again before "cheonging" again. Anyway...it is just a case of forgetting the basic rules of trading that caused the loss and nothing to do with my trading call.

Stock....this week is a profitable week. Made money with my few trades eg Midas, Baker Tech for SG market and China Shipping Cont, Guangdong Inv, Xinao Gas for HK market. Now I am left with only SoundGlobal for SG and SMIC for HK market.

My trading plan for this coming week....may focus more on stocks for the moment and will buy on any pullback as I believed that with the start of the football - World Cup, volume is less and the market is also in for the closing of the Qtr/Yr-end for some companies, therefore there will be window-closing opportunities ( pushing up of share price for companies ).

For SG market....will focus on Midas ( just broke peak and is within less than 6% plus volume is coming back ) and Baker Tech ( if no issue with it's legal fight with SMC over it's stake in PPL then it will be a windfall for it's share price ).

For HK market....esp with the index back to above 20K points, there are a few stocks looking "good and cheap" eg Foxconn after getting "hit" due to what is happening in it's China plants, Fosun....with it's recent stake in Club Med, China Food....very cheap now with it's recent sell-down, Nine Dragons....same thing looking cheap after the sell-down, SMIC....same thing too after falling from HKD1.09 to present HKD0.66 with it's counter-parts from Taiwan TSM and UMC predicted further increase demand for "chips" in the coming years. Then....the China banks eg ICBC and BOC esp Agbank IPO is coming out soon.

For forex....I will go slow for the moment and watch the direction for the Eur/USD and USD/JYP. Will place trades....on Tuesday once the direction is clearer. From there, I will slowing build up positions for other pairs. It is a case of back to basic for me hahaha.

The BREAK EVEN Forex Trade - by Nial Fuller . .

Being profitable in the forex is where we all want to be. And how we measure this is often by quantifying our results in terms of profit versus losses. Yet, this measure cannot be, by itself, sufficient to sustain our motivation. All traders have periods of losses en route to profits. As a result, a single-minded desire for profits may itself be a factor in furthering losses and actually reduce the potential for success. For once a person desires profits, resulting losses turn into disappointments. The experience of disappointment may then unleash a host of destructive emotions. The problem then becomes how we handle these losses and not the fact that they occur. How can a trader overcome becoming obsessed with profits and being emotionally unprepared for the realities of losses?

The solution is to step outside the conventional profit and loss paradigm that dominates us and realize that between the realm of profits and losses there is a neutral zone that allows the trader to PAUSE. From a mathematical perspective the neutral zone is represented by the number 0 (zero). Obviously one moves from the negative numbers of losing trades to the positive column of winning trades.

But having trades that are break-even, or 0 (zero) on the profit and loss register or reasonably near that range, is actually a very good outcome. Foremost among its benefits is it allows one to keep intact the capital at risk for another and perhaps better trade. Breaking even may not elicit the praise of others but it is a sustaining event. How you get to break even is also important.

If the 0 (zero) entry on the trading log is the result of a profitable trade turning into a loss, it may represent an astute observation by the trader that conditions have changed and getting out is preferable to seeing negative numbers. On the other hand, a break-even trade may be the outcome of a quick exit by the trader fearing a loss. A frequent number of these break-even trades in one’s account may reveal the trader is becoming overwhelmed by the setting in of destructive emotions such as anxiety, guilt, fear or greed. We all know that this is not an uncommon experience. However, the break-even trade also can become a huge opportunity to evolve into a mature trader by going beyond an obsession for profits.

Many of us approach each trade in an arrogant fashion, as the chance to grab pips. This concept reflects a commonly held view that trading is a zero-sum battle between the trader and the market, where the trader wins or loses against the market. But some of the best trading methods produce a win ratio just above 50% or less!. The majority of trades are roughly break-even. Every flat or small losing trade keep us in the game. Traders get in trouble when they stubbornly hold onto a trade refusing to believe their hunch, system or simply their timing, is wrong.

Yet, there is a better and ultimately more effective approach. What if we humbly reconfigure our mindset and view the forex market as a magnificently complex place full of opportunity that when properly understood provides valuable trades? We would experience a shift in our entire mental and emotional focus. The market then becomes not our enemy, but a field of opportunities that when understood can produce profits. Those who take this stance do not demand nor expect pips to be handed over as if they belong to us. Instead we aspire to obtain a great trade by recognizing a winning price action pattern. Pips or profits become what we earn by applying our knowledge. The market becomes our partner, it is a reciprocal relationship. The ability to trade each day by emptying ourselves first of ego satisfaction may not be easy, but it is the distinguishing characteristic of traders in the process of transforming and evolving themselves from frenetic beginnings to a level of competence.

If your next trade is neither a profit nor a loss, pause and relax, because in the case of forex trading, the result of 0 (zero) or break even is a positive number in the long run.

Conclusion - yes, this happened to me on Friday esp after getting whacked on Thursday in Eur/USD and Eur/JPY pairs. Then on Friday....already start to pull back on my trades and after a couple of stopped out USD/CHF then USD/SGD, my confidence took a big hit and I started to question my own methods and trading plan. I had a few chances to close the trades on Thu and Fri but I didn't. Now after reading this....I feel better but I will still tone down my trades this coming week.
Btw for the week....I sort of break even after losing the profit I made on Mon till Wed. Yes, esp on Wed...I closed too soon for Eur/USD and USD/CHF if not I would have double on funding again. That is why...I took the risk on Thu when the trades started to turn against. I can easily close and walk away but I did not do so.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

New template for my blog - POWER!

Yes....a nice looking one too. Not to mention it is cheery with my favorite color in it too.

Sure give me....strenght to push forward.

Reality check on my present plans.

I took a step back and do a "Reality" check....esp for my forex trading plan and after a good night sleep plus a chaim-see at Waterloo temple, my conclusion is that I better wait till the end of this month before thinking about quiting the stock market for the moment. As most of my money is still in stocks and may have to take a "big hit" if I will to sell off my present holding, when my forex trading has not really taken off yet ( yes, managed to grow the fund but not fully time tested ).

So....having taken this decision to put a "hold" on the idea for the moment, I shall still continue to learn and do a trial for whatever concept that may help to re-enforce my trading plan.

Meanwhile....will also take another look at what I have for my stocks and what I must do for them. The main thing is try not to sell at a loss but to slowly clear or to re-position the holding to more defensive stocks to hold longer. If can...to hold
more cash since the World Cup has started and most of the market are predicted to slow down during this period. With that happening....then I also expect the share price to soften.

My chaim-see is no 67 which is a GOOD one.....which say that I must continue to up-hold my sense of justice in order to ensure smooth surrounding for myself and family.
With this advice.....I now want to go slow with trying to take on too many things eg teaching others on forex and to over-fund my forex trading account to "anyhow whack".
First....I must ensure that I can really able to "stand-up" and safely say that my trading plan is fool-proof first, for that the best I can say is that so far so good hehe. And hope the run will continue. Esp the plan must be able to go thru a duration
test and come out a "winner", even one month test may not be the answer. It must be able to run for a full season meaning one full year to test the idea against the time and different situation. Yes...I will share idea with wife and children and to include them for the trial.

No teaching or sharing with outsider yet till....I can safely say that yes it has gone thru "hell and back - it is a winner, therefore a good idea" then I shall think to go to my PLAN B. With that....my conscience will be clear. Plus my own house will be in order then and I can proceed to PLAN B.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Stock trading days - about over soon!!

Yes....I will slowing give up on this stock trading thingy and re-group/re-focus my energy to forex trading. Since I am more confident of doing better trading forex than in stocks.

Yes....I will put in "most of my focus/time" on forex trading in order to hone and sharpen my skill in charting/for entry and exit of a trade to bring my learning curve up to speed in order to meet my target on increasing my fund ( balance of it at
end of last month - May ) to at least 5 times that amount haha...now already 3 times so it is not a hard target. Maybe I should increase that to 10 times? Greedy? no...
I believed I can do it too if really put in all my focus.

Yes....to pull the trigger at the right time would make a huge different to one's profit level and at the same time to reduce the stress level in trading well haha.
This is also am important part of trading and it can be done thru having more confidence in one's gut feel for the trade. And the willingness to admit mistake and close a trade asap....when things/situation change.

I find it harder to do that in stock trading becoz of the amount in commission for trading in the first place then end-up with bigger loss. For forex....since the commission is already in the spread and if for major pairs eg EUR/USD, USD/JPY at so low it is fine to call it "wrong" and to exit a trade immediately.

On whether I will totally give up trading stocks....maybe not immediately but if I can confirmed my experiment works, then I think it is a matter of time to give up on that to concentrate on doing well for forex.

I have already told my wife that if this experiment works....I want to continue to stay at my present condo to enjoy the environment and for me to unwind after a hard day of cracking brain over making money!

Now....I found myself understanding why always my "chaim-see" predicted that the wealth is waiting for me to pick it up once the time comes! So....is this my true calling? Is forex trading the answer to all my future source of income??? If yes,
then I am "set" for this LIFE.....thank GOD for it's timely too esp since my company is going over to China soon. Selling insurance, driving taxi or running about as a housing agent may be getting too tough for me....as my mouth is getting hard to "anyhow let-go" as my age is catching up. Plus skin....getting thinner too, getting too sensitive as pocket gets lighter and I spending more time being alone!

Weekend again - my view of forex trading.

Aiyo...time flys and I really have enough time to really slow down and enjoy myself lately as I was busy trying out my trade plans for my forex trading and at the same time trying to iron-out the rough edges if any.

So far for my forex trading is going as per plan and I am never happier than now about me able to master it. I have done trading for stocks and forex but now...I
firmly believed that forex is for me. Stocks....is more for the big boys with deep pockets while for forex, it is easier for the pocket. You can start with whatever capital and trade with whatever risk size you can handle.

For newbies....like myself, I remember I start with 50 cts per trade max. Meaning if my trade failed, the most I lose is 50 cts. The reason for it was that in any trading, the newbies will have to go thru the learning curve and usually lose money 95% of the time. I have gone thru that....and after 8 months of losing, I was about to give up....I found a method that can give me a better chance of winning. Having work on it....for the past 2 weeks, I am further testing with new ways of improving it.

Initially my wins were due to gut feel....now I want it to be more sure, and with more trades I am now more confident that I can win 95% of the time whenever I trade as opposed to all my trades before. One of the changes is that I don't want to worry about placing my "stop-loss" further just in case I was wrong with the trade. Then....my first trade order is small which I take as a guide for further trades for the same currency pair. If it didn't work out and show a negative result....I will follow-up with a bigger trade ( usually double the units as the 1st trade ) and if that also failed....I will fire-up another even bigger order ( double the number of units as compared to my 2nd trade ). I have never experience any failure yet for my third trade once it is placed. Usually if it comes to this....it would have bounced back within minutes. This is the reason how I managed to triple my fund in just less than 10 days of trading.

Now...I am trying my idea on my wife with her doing the trading using my method. I will let her try for the next 2 months. I noticed she is not too sure about the trading platform from Onoda. Btw this is just her 2nd day of her trial....and I was instructing her via the phone and not face-to-face. I am sure if I will be personally teach her face-to-face and show her what my plan was, she would catch up quicker. Why??? I want to test whether can I show someone totally "new" how to execute a trade and still can make money. And at the same time....grow her confidence about the whole idea of forex trading. No need to go thru all the stuffs that I went thru with course which took me a full 8 weeks ( once a week = therefore 8 sessions of 3 hrs each time ) then followed by real live trading. Btw I end-up more confused and end-up losing money in my trading. I tried this and that...but in the end, still losing money. I also started to lose confidence about even wanting to trigger a trade.

My method....is aim at cutting the learning curve and straight to making money whenever a trade is triggered. This is what...will boast the confident level of a newbie that forex trading is that easy and at the same time.....profitable therefore fun. Then....to add other important points to the learning eg positioning of lot size ( already tried hands-on during the trading - adding of positions and the size of the orders ), the importance of putting of "stop-loss" and how much to risk per trade, the POWER and the skill of charting and how to read it. The whole idea is to build-up a winning mentality at the beginning to motivate more learning.

I remembered my time with courses which I feel is a waste of time and money ( 3K+ ) and in the end....I am confused and depressed with the trades ( losing 95% of the time ). Until to the extent that whenever I triggered a trade in the class I am willing to bet with the rest of the students that it would end-up kena "stopped out" and true enough....it happened most of the time esp the "intra-day and 3 hrs trades".

I asked the trainers to how to execute a winning trade and what was the trick to do it. The answer....do a core trade and slowing see it grow that is if all the charting and entry is "RIGHT". For intra and 3 hrs trade....set a tight stop-loss before triggering a trade. But now I realised that was the main reason why my trades usually end-up kena "stopped out". Yes...the trainers are super nice people but they cannot ensured you made money whenever you trade, and since you have already paid for the course....we end-up "LL" lan-lan and keep quiet. Same for the courses I attended for stock trading....confirmed sure make money and so on if follow rules but I end up losing bleeding slowly to death and to more depressions. They forget to mention that their methods may not be of use during certain time eg when the share prices have already gone up to their peak. Now I also realised that their method of momentum trading in stocks is useful when the market has "tanked" and rebouncing from the bottom or buying a "slow" up-trending stock. For the normal market...if the stocks are choppy, sure kena "stopped out" too.

The name of the company....offering the forex and stock trading classes/courses is left out. To me....these people are super smart becoz they know trading would be too hard to make money than teaching people esp the "blur and greedy" ones like myself.
In total....spent over 3K+ each to attend their course and still end-up losing another huge bunch of cash. SAD...sighed!

Once my experience works....meaning I can made at least 5 times my fund at end of one month using my method....plus if my wife can also use the idea and made money 95% of the time then I will get more scrap-goats for trials eg my eldest daughter and her bf, then my close friends and so on.

To me, forex...no one can really "corner" the market therefore no risk to show more people to earn a passive income. And once one can mastered the concept....I believed it is life long skill to earn money. The only fear is "GREED" therefore unnecessary risks. If one is willing to go "slow and steady" and is happy to have some spare change to spend every time then he/she will do well knowing this trick. They must only trigger a trade when the price action is within the trading set-up then the chance of making money is good...if not great! A sure thing!

The greatest challenge for me is to teach those who have totally no idea about using a pc or lap-top. And if I can do that...and they can make money then I will say I am a successful trader and trainer. Hope I can last that long....and out-last teaching and showing these aunties/uncles how to make the pips.....and not "mati" from coughing blood first haha.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

TGIF - again near weekend

The stock markets....were choppy and except for the blue chips counters the rest of the other shares were dead and being dumped. Just wild swings.

For forex, the EURO managed to strengthen as the week "wear" on while the USD weaken, same goes for the JPY.

For myself....loss money in stocks but made from forex. Now I am growing in confident when trading forex, no matter which pair but I would prefer USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs for the low commission.

For the week...I made less as compared to last week. This week my aim was not as sharp as last week when I scored well with EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. This week I am into all pairs...as long as the price movement is within my set-up. Since I am not too sure how the reactions from the different pairs...I tend to take profit quicker and my trade is more closer to that of scalping for pips. And also....I was "caught" with some of the trades but somehow still managed to close with a small profit for most of my trades.

Why I do the above??? Basically I was trying to test out my method to see whether can it work for all pairs, with this week's result I think it can but to be sure I will
push for it for the whole month. And at the end of the month, I still in the "black" then my method works. That would be GREAT....becoz forex is even better trading tool as compared to stock. It is 24hrs 5 days/week thingy. While the stock market is a 9 to 5 thingy here and still may not allow to "short" when market turns. While for forex...can "short and long" as long as account is funded. Then no one can fully controlled the forex market while stock markets are controlled by the big boys.

True....forex is not a easy thing to fully understand and learnt. I had a hard time for the past 8 months until I found the "trick" for it. I am so far....winning 95% of all trades which is why my confident is high. I can trade whenever I am free and as long as I can focus. Must be fully focus on it...and that is the only way to have a profitable trade, no short-cut or risk losing that trade.

Another thing....do not set daily winning target as that may increased the stress level plus forced one to trade just to make some pips which is wrong concept. I would rather focus to do well and if winning then I would continue until the moment I screwed up one single trade....I closed and stopped all my trading immediately to regroup and rethink what went wrong to cause my losses. That way...I trade and learnt at the same time. And thru....trading with REAL $$$$ only can one picks up the important skills for doing well for forex. It is different....for everyone. Meaning my method may not "work" for others....while others' method may not work for me. I tried teaching my wife and kids....frankly they only managed to give me the "alien look". When I am the one who do the trades....they seem happy and look like they know what I am doing but last night while I called back from office to my wife, she was "blur".....stressed and failed to execute the trades fast enough.

Yes...I only more or less get the "hang" of it, I am now confident enough to teach whoever want to learn to make some spare money or passive income. So far....no one has taken up on my offer. FOC....the way to make $$$ trading forex just one to two hours a day at anywhere in the world where there is a Internet connection. To me, how much you want to make a day, a week and a month depend mainly on how much time and efforts one want to do it.

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tO hAVe FuN wiTH mY liFe aND aLsO wAnT mY loVED oNeS tO hAVE tHE SaME tOO. :) bUt iN rEAL LiFe tHaT sHouLd bE sOOn.