Friday, March 21, 2008

Five Rules for Thriving in a Bad Economy - important to know!

The news is grim. Housing values are dropping, subprime mortgage meltdowns are spreading, the stock market's uncertain and the overall economy seems to be heading into a recession.
No wonder plenty of us are worried.

Still, you can protect yourself. Here are some experts' top five must-make strategies to do your best now that the economy is likely in for a choppy ride.

5 rules for economic survival
1. Don't panic
2. Bullet-proof your portfolio
3. Don't let your home become a trap
4. Dust off your resume
5. Reduce your debt and build savings

Rule No. 1: Don't panic
The stock market's gyrations can give even the hardiest investors a case of the jitters.
However, converting all your investments to cash is likely to cause you far more harm than good, says Joe Baker, CFP and president of Alcus Financial Group in Mount Pleasant, S.C.

"People are scared," he says. "They're asking, 'Is the economy crashing? Should I move my 401(k) to a money market?'"
Baker answers: "Please do not, unless you need the cash tomorrow. You'd be making a huge mistake."

Unless you need the money short-term -- say, within two years -- it's best to remind yourself that good and bad times pass. Historically, the market's made up all its losses fairly quickly.
Since 1945, there have been 11 recessions as officially defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The S&P 500 -- the index of widely held stocks used as a barometer for the overall market -- generally has hit bottom six months into the typical 10-month-long recession, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's.

After that point, the market typically starts regaining its footing. If you include the very worst meltdowns, when the S&P 500 lost more than 45 percent of its value, it took 19 months for investors to recoup their losses. But exclude the mega losses, and you find that it's actually taken just eight months on average for the index to bounce back.

"The reason the market peaks before recessions start on average and troughs before they're finished is that investors are anticipators," says Stovall. They're willing to become more optimistic once the bad news is out," says Stovall.
Stovall's advice to today's worrywarts is direct: "Don't freak out."

Boy..oh..boy, I lost my 2 hairy balls along the way the market moved lately.

Rule No. 2: Bullet-proof your portfolio
Sure, we all know the warnings about putting all our eggs in one basket. But when it comes to investing, too few heed this advice.
One study by Hewitt Associates, for example, found that three out of five workers participating in a 401(k) plan never rebalanced their portfolios over a four-year period from 2000 to 2004. Failing to rebalance causes your portfolio to skew over time, leaving you overloaded with one kind of asset while owning too little of something else. If you've neglected your assets, such imbalance could put you at greater risk.
Recent drops have left many investors in a position where they need more equities and less fixed-income. That may come as a shock for safety-hungry investors who are eager to stock up on fixed-income, cash and other "safe" assets.
"If your asset allocation was good for you six months ago, it should be good for you today," says Ellen Rinaldi, executive director of investment planning and research at Vanguard. "The fact that the market is volatile should remind you to be appropriately diversified."
Personal factors like your age and risk tolerance -- not the current state of the economy -- should drive your investing. For example, workers in their 20s and 30s should generally devote roughly 80 percent to 90 percent of their assets in equities while people in their 60s approaching retirement may devote up to 50 percent of their assets to stocks.
"Use market declines as opportunities to add to holdings," says Stovall.
Remember, it's a misstep to put your faith in gold, commodities or any other particular asset that seems popular now that the stock market is roiling.
"If you liked the market four months ago, it's at a 15 percent discount," says Brett Horowitz, a financial planner at Evensky & Katz. "It's a great time to buy. When you buy at a point when everything looks ugly, that's good. You're buying low. It's forward thinking."

Rule No. 3: Don't let your home become a trap
Experts agree that tough economic times mean homeowners must figure out if they've got the best mortgage possible. Many people have adjustable-rate mortgages that are about to reset higher, causing their monthly payment to balloon.
It's imperative for these homeowners to refinance to a lower, fixed-rate mortgage that will give them more stability in their month-to-month finances.
Unfortunately, that's easier said than done right now.

Luckily...we don't have this problem here, as we can use the CPF to pay for the monthly loan.

Rule No. 4: Dust off your resume
When the threat of recession looms, it's smart to pay extra attention to your job.
"Corporations are in a wait-and-see mode when it comes to hiring," says John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the Chicago-based staffing firm. "Employers are getting more cautious about opening new offices, adding staff."
Working hard can help protect your job, but may not be enough. Instead, be strategic and figure out where you stand. Workers who cost employers money are most likely to be laid off. These include support staff in bureaucratic positions or workers in overstaffed departments.
By contrast, employees who add to a company's revenues are more likely to be viewed as valuable assets. So, try to take on work that no one else can do, or volunteer to head up long-range projects vital to your employer.
Also take note of your boss' performance. If your one ally looks like he or she may be at risk of getting bounced out, start forging additional alliances.
"Connect with higher ups so if your boss leaves, you aren't stuck," Challenger says.

Play satay??? Better just get the resume updated and on stand-by. No need to sataying yet! I have my pride!

Rule No. 5: Reduce your debt and boost savings
It's even more important to get rid of bills and amass extra cash now that the economy is on shaky ground. That's because various assets, such as homes and stocks, that helped bail out Americans out in the past few years have now plummeted in value. This is also true here.

Pay off your most expensive credit cards first. While credit card rates may fall, don't count on it, especially if you have a tarnished payment history. A shaky economy often gives banks a reason to increase rates. Wah...this is bad.

Talking about share falling prices and losing money trading.

Well....with all these bad news around and the talk of recession, no wonder all the stock markets from US to China...."tanked".

Cost of materials are up....eg WORLD oil prices ducked under US$100 (S$139) per barrel on Thursday, diving from record heights struck earlier this week amid fears of a global slowdown in energy demand, traders said. Last year this time....we are at US$50 to 60 and we are already complaining. Now...we are at US$100. And the price of gold and other commodities are at their all time highs.

How to tahan?

China stocks pounded on fears over earnings, costs

S-SHARES, which refer to stocks of China companies listed in Singapore, took a beating yesterday, with many plunging to fresh lows. The fear in the stock market is that these companies are now facing severe profit margin squeeze because of growing raw material costs.

These worries were compounded by a profit warning from Synear Food and recent analysts' downgrades of S-shares, signalling weaker earnings for these companies.

Among those that fell to all-time closing lows yesterday were Synear, which slumped 6 per cent to 39.5 cents, China Energy (1.3 per cent to 38 cents), China XLX Fertiliser (9.8 per cent to 50.5 cents), and China Sun Bio-Chem Technology (8 per cent to 23 cents).

Frozen food producer Synear issued a profit warning on Wednesday. Besides saying that sales for the first quarter ending March 31 were expected to be up to 10 per cent lower than a year ago due to the recent snowstorm in China, it also said that prices of raw materials such as pork, flour and packaging materials continued to trend upwards.

This triggered a rating downgrade from CIMB-GK from 'trading sell' to 'underperform' and a cut in target price for Synear from $0.77 to $0.35. It also cut its FY08-FY10 earnings per share estimates by 7.3-8.2 per cent on lower sales volume and margins assumptions.

'In light of the dismal near-term outlook and execution risks from the company's aggressive expansion plans, we have lowered our target valuation to six times CY09 P/E (price/ earnings) from 12 times, now valuing the company on a par with Pine Agritech, which we also think has a challenging near- term outlook,' the brokerage said. CIMB-GK has an 'underperform' call on Pine Agritech, with a $0.16 price target.

CIMB-GK also cut its recommendation on China XLX from 'outperform' to 'neutral' and more than halved its target price from $1.20 to $0.57, citing rising coal prices and an estimated fall in Q1 urea gross margins. Its earnings forecast was also pared down by 15-39 per cent for FY08-10.

In the recent earnings downgrades by analysts on Singapore-listed companies, S-shares suffered the biggest earnings downgrades after disappointing results for FY07.

Earlier this week, Merrill Lynch cut its FY08/09 earnings forecasts for China Energy by 39-47 per cent and lowered its target price from $1.68 to $0.62 due to production delays and rising competition. But it is keeping its 'buy' call on the stock on belief there is limited downside from here.

Similarly, CIMB-GK cut its earnings per share estimates for the company by 6-10 per cent and target price from $1.76 to $1.44 while keeping its 'outperform' rating.

China Energy's shares were also battered yesterday on concerns over a potential overpayment for its acquisition of Jiutai Energy (Guangzhou).

Cost concerns clouding the market prompted starch producer China Essence to release an update on its business operations yesterday. It said its raw material costs have not been impacted despite rising costs of other commodities as prices of its potato supply has been locked in contracts with local farmers.

The snowstorm for the past three months also did not affect the group's production and distribution of potato starch as the potato were already converted to starch before the onset of the snowstorm and distribution of the starch was shifted to sea transport during the snowstorm.
'It is unlikely to be a problem for us to continue achieving double-digit growth in earnings,' the group's chairman and CEO Zhao Libin told BT. The price of potato starch remains on an uptrend and gross margins are likely to stay steady around 40 per cent, he added.

But shares of China Essence fell 5.7 per cent to a 52-week closing low of 50 cents yesterday.

Where is the bottom for some of these shares?

With so much pain going around, is it time to buy yet?

THE Hang Seng Index has lost 34 per cent since its all-time high in October; the Straits Times Index 27 per cent. In China, the Shanghai Composite's fall from its own record high in October is now 38 per cent and the Shenzhen Composite's loss is 27 per cent. (You'd have to wonder whatever happened to the seemingly unstoppable China growth story?)

In normal circumstances, numbers like these would have contrarians rubbing their hands in glee - after all, it's a well-known fact of market life that the best time to buy is when fear levels are high and equities are a dirty word that no one wants to know. So given the widespread pain markets are buckling under, you'd have to wonder - is it time to buy yet?

These are, unfortunately, not normal circumstances. Over the past two months, investors have witnessed an unprecedented four emergency moves by the US Federal Reserve to shore up its financial markets - an emergency 50 basis-point federal funds rate cut on Jan 22, a US$400 billion plan to accept distressed mortgage securities as collateral in exchange for issuing US Treasuries announced last Tuesday and the weekend bailout of Bear Stearns, together with arrangements to act as lender to financial firms which previously were not entitled to seek the Fed's help.

So far, the markets have not responded well to these moves - Asian stocks continued to tumble yesterday, and given that Bear Stearns is now to be taken over at just US$2 per share versus its Friday closing of US$30, investors are clearly betting on more Wall Street pain in the days ahead, especially if there are more Bear Stearns-type collapses lying ahead.

And therein lies the problem - although Asian markets have been battered to lows not seen since the end of 2006 and may arguably not be far off their bottoms, the primary source of global woes, which is Wall Street, has not followed suit.

In other words, despite all its wobbles over the past six months, Wall Street is probably still too optimistic about the state of its economy and the effect the impending slowdown will have on earnings. It may also not have fully priced in the extent of a prolonged slowdown, nor fully appreciated the risks the financial system faces if there are more banking failures to contend with.

To borrow a well-worn broking cliche, until 'valuations appear more reasonable', Wall Street remains the major stumbling block to any rebound here.

As far as the Singapore market is concerned however, the declining volume of the past fortnight and somewhat lowered volatility suggest some sort of exhaustion or selling climax setting in, which might then lead to a minor rebound of sorts within the next week or so.

However, an absence of sellers does not automatically equate to the presence (or influx) of buyers and, as has been shown repeatedly over the past three months, powerful bounces usually lead to equally powerful plunges. The answer to the question of whether it's time to buy is therefore clearly: 'not yet'.

Wa....lua, with shares trading at less than their value at end of 2006.....things are still nok. Eg...Synear - down for 4 days straight then up for only 1 day then again down for the next 2 days. In all....lost about 30% of it's value in just 7 days of trading. Fucked....what a rubbish?

IMPATIENT with his path of peace - Tibet protesters

THEY want action, not diplomacy.

The Dalai Lama wants to resolve the dispute through 'dialogue' with China.
They want independence, not autonomy.

While their revered leader, the Dalai Lama, urges Tibetans to take the pacifist approach to resolve problems in their homeland, the angry faces of Buddhist monks and nuns who have marched up the steep paths of Dharamsala in recent days showed that they had other plans.

The exiles succeeded in grabbing some global attention as the world's eyes are trained on China ahead of the Olympics.

But they didn't expect their protests to spread into Tibet and so violently at that. Now they're scrambling to react.

The Dalai Lama, 72, has said he will resign as their leader if violence in Tibet spirals out of control.

'Whether we like it or not, we have to live together side by side,' said the Dalai Lama, clearly troubled that much of last week's violence appeared to have been committed by Tibetans.
'We must oppose Chinese policy but not the Chinese. Not on a racist basis.'

But his urging Tibetans to work with the Chinese stood in stark contrast to the 'Free Tibet' chants of thousands of Tibetan youths.

Said Tibetan Youth Congress head Tsewang Rigzin: 'I appeal to the protesters in Tibet to continue in their protests until China gets out of Tibet.'

The younger activists believe the Dalai Lama is squandering a golden opportunity by not opposing China hosting the Olympics.

As the first march got under way in India last week, monks began holding peaceful protests in Lhasa, Tibet's capital.

But the protests soon spread and turned violent, with Tibetans attacking China's majority ethnic Han Chinese.

Beijing has encouraged the Han to settle in Tibet, where they are deeply resented.

China said rioters killed 13 'innocent civilians' in Lhasa last Friday.

And Tibet's prime minister-in-exile said on Monday that about 100 people had been killed in China's crackdown.

The Dalai Lama says that he understands young people's frustrations and that disagreements are proof that the democratic values he has pushed for among Tibetans have taken root.

But he insists his path is the only one that can save Tibet from 'cultural genocide' in the face of massive Chinese migration and religious restrictions. 'Our only strengths are justice and truth,' he said. 'Force is immediate, but the effects of truth sometimes take longer.'

As Ms B Tsering, head of the Tibetan Women's Association, told The New York Times: 'We are not all holy, spiritual people, we are just ordinary folks.

'We are not all like the Dalai Lama. He genuinely and sincerely believes in non-violence, but sometimes the ordinary people get frustrated and angry.'

From the look of it, the whole thing is well planned but when it turned violent then it has defected it's main purpose. These protesters should blamed themselves for the screwed-up.
They should have known that their actions are encouraged by the westerners hoping to discredit China....and now back-fired on the Dalai Lama himself. Even the Dalai Lama....should have known the violent will happened. He is supposed to be a god-king! So....he also cannot escaped the blame too. For those protesters in other countries....guessed they have abused the trust of those countries and they should be sent back to China for causing trouble.

It is always sad to see people killing or get killed in the name of religion. We are now living in 2008 but seem like there are always people out there encouraging some weak-minded people to do their deeds. Plain stupid....if you asked me.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

SGX - chinese S-Chip shares

One word....SHIT! what rubbish shit shares are these? Since late Oct 2007....seem like all these shares just "tanked". Some already lost about 80% of their value on Oct 2007 but till now, there is no end or no bottom in sight for these shares.

Some of these counters are highly recommended by the analysts from the Broking houses or Banks.....but still, the selling have not stop. Like today or last week's Wednesday....the US market "shot-up" by more than 400 points but the market here re-act with a good start but as the hour passed....it went down esp these S-Chips shares. Local counters faired better....but not
these chinese shares.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

China says Tibet rioters trying to wreck Olympics

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao accused the Dalai Lama of orchestrating riots in Tibet in which dozens may have died and said his followers were trying to "incite sabotage" of Beijing's August Olympic Games.

"There is ample fact and plenty of evidence proving this incident was organized, premeditated, masterminded and incited by the Dalai clique," Wen told a news conference.

"This has all the more revealed the consistent claims by the Dalai clique that they pursue not independence but peaceful dialogue are nothing but lies."

Monk-led anti-China protests in Lhasa, the biggest in almost two decades, turned ugly on Friday, weighing uncomfortably on the Communist leadership anxious to polish its image in the build-up to the Olympic Games.

Wen said the protesters "wanted to incite the sabotage of the Olympic Games in order to achieve their unspeakable goal."

Asked to comment, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said: "In fact, what the international community should concern itself with and should ask about is precisely what role and function he played in this serious incident of criminal violence involving fighting, smashing, looting and arson.

From the lay man's view, from what the Chinese side said it has some truth in it. becoz the protests were well planned from India, Nepal to China. Even in some western capitals...there are protests supported by westerners. That is the reason why the peaceful protests got out of control. Some of the protesters were playing up to the gallery...for the "ang mos" to see.

To me....there is a huge different between the protests in Tibet and those in Burma. One is playing to the ang mo's gallery...while the other is for the daily livelihood's of the people. Those living in Tibet now are better off than those in Burma....that goes without saying.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Tibet's protests and the Dalai Lama

Till now....I always have a great respect for him for his knowledge of Buddhism and as a living god-king but with the present troubles in Tibet, I do question his intention.

Why now....esp with the Olympics coming up on 08/08/08, to me the westerners and their NGOs are making uses of him to cause trouble now to force China's hand. On one hand ....as Buddhist we are told that all lifes is scared and with all the protest marches in China, surely a simple fool will be able to tell that someone will die. Now to me....the Dalai Lama's hands is strained with blood and he has lost his moral authority to preach the religion.
Maybe he may want to think carefully before he send more people to die / kill.

Guess....in all religions, there is always some selfish acts by some of the leaders that will cause "senseless deaths and bloodshed". I am both sadden and angry
by all these deaths.

I am not siding with the Chinese also....I just think others should not pay the price for some of these leaders to gain back their lost powers! To me....somehow these so-called leaders are always out of harm ways. What a bull-shit!

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