Thursday, September 02, 2010

Forex Trading Traps – How You Can Avoid These 4 Top Frauds in Forex Trading

1. Doing Research: It is most important to thoroughly research Forex trading, and any companies you may be thinking of trading forex with, before making any kind of investments. Be sure to check out any claims made by a company, and make sure they are indeed members of one of these organizations, before even thinking of dealing with them. Some people just park their hard-earned cash with some forex trading organizations without first doing research on that company. It is a risk.

2. Stay Away From Promises That Sound Too Good to Be True: Those Get-rich-quick schemes, including those involving forex trading, tend to be frauds. There is no easy way of learning how to trade forex and earn consistent profits everytime. Always remember that there is no such thing as a “free lunch.”, you will really need to spend some time to learn forex basics. Some big investors invest with a large amount of funds, which are never to be seen again if deposited with those schemes.

3. Avoid Any Forex Company that Assures You Large Profits: Be extremely wary of those forex trading companies that guarantee profits. Nobody can offer sure guarantees where currency trading is concerned. In many cases, those claims are false. Learn to trade forex by yourself with a forex trading guide or ebook will be good enough, then slowly make your way up. The following are examples of statements that are most likely are fraudulent:

“Guaranteed to make a ROI of 40-50% within few days.”
“You will reach a million dollars fast in forex trading.”
“Make $5000 in forex trading every week!”
“You don’t have to learn how to trade forex, it’s all automated.”
“You will never lose again in forex trading.”

4. Avoid promises with little or zero risk trading: The guarantee of risk-free forex trading is another fraudulent claim. The fact that more than 90% of people failed in forex trading means there are risks in losing. the currency market is not the place to put any funds that you cannot afford to lose. No can will know how the markets will be performing in the future. Therefore, it’s either low risk or high risk trading, and NOT NO risk! Anyone who suggests that forex trading is risk-free is likely to be a liar or fraudster.

For those new in forex trading, you will find the contents in my free ebook very useful as there is free forex trading system for you. And for advanced traders, you will also find value added stuffs inside the ebook, so try not to be attracted to those claims which can make you a lot of money, learning and trading by yourself is the best.

Copied from Futures Trading System

Forex Trading Tips – 5 Traps to Avoid if You Want to Trade the News in Forex

If you have been trading the currency market for a while, you’ll know that there is money to be made trading forex news. However, trading the news in forex does involve some risks and there are 5 major traps you must avoid before you can to trade the forex news successfully. We’ll discuss these 5 traps and provide some forex tips and forex trading strategies to use to counter these traps.

Trap #1: Strong Market Reaction.

Economic news releases and reports are forex indicators for future long-term movements for a currency pair. But for short-term trading, the actual results and the forecasted expectations may create big move opportunities.

Thus, when actual results came out the same as what the market expected, then there is high possibility that the market will not have a strong reaction. It is the big gap difference between the actual release and the market expectations that causes the market to have a breakout or big movement.

Trap #2: Generally Short-Lived.

Most of the time, breakout opportunities from the news release are not a long term trend as the movement may only last for few minutes to few hours. But still, it has to depend on the significance of the economic news release and the difference between the actual results and the forecasted expectations.

Most traders are either using forex scalping or day trading when they trade on news releases. One of the forex tips is to try not to trade during the release as the trade can turn against you in a short moment even after you caught a big initial move.

Trap #3: Quiet Market before a Big Movement.

The market may often poise for a huge movement when it is very quiet before some economic announcements or news releases. This is because the market is waiting for those before deciding on which direction it is going.

Traders are waiting for a right opportunity to jump into the market after the news reports are being released. Thus, you should not react to any forex trading signals 2 to 3 hours before the news are released as the signals may be false and misleading.

Trap #4: High Spread during News Releases.

During news releases, a trading broker may guarantee that your trade will be executed, but none of them will guarantee a normal spread for you. Forex brokers will widen the spread due to the lack of trading volume during the release. EUR/USD is one of the currency pairs with tight spread, but I have seen it turning it into a 10 pips spread from a normally 2 pips during a news release.

Trap #5: High slippage.

You might experience slippage when there is a big move during news releases. It means that your trade order will get filled at a different price instead of the price that you wanted. For example, you might have set a limit order at 1.3000.

But when the news release, the price shoot up 50 pips to 1.3050. So a slippage may occur and you will get your order filled at maybe 1.3020 instead of 1.3000. This is quite risky as the market may go against your trading plan.

The above forex trading guide will be very useful if you are using a forex day trading strategy to trade news. But in any case, I will not recommend news trading as it is very risky with the above considerations.

Copied from Futures Trading System

Trading Forex During Economic Releases by Alexander Nekritin

In this article I will talk about a popular trend that is taking place among forex traders in terms of taking advantage of inefficiency in the markets during economic news releases. Although this strategy is a bit risky I have seen some of our clients reap great rewards by utilizing it.

How Economic Releases Work

Certain organizations like the Federal Reserve Bank announce economic reports such as the non-farm pay roll, GDP, Consumer price index and more. You will usually be able to find an economic calendar on the internet, in fact our website forexyourself.com has one available. Another very popular one is forexfactory.com. It has been historically tested that various economic releases will impact the price of the currency pairs that are associated with them. For example the Non-Farm Payroll will usually effect the U.S. dollar.

A good economic calendar such as the one on ForexFactory states which currency pair will most likely be affected by a particular economic release. Although the long term price change of a particular currency pair is unpredictable, usually a short-term spike will take place. This spike is based on the divergence between the forecasted numbers (consensus) and the actual numbers released. Thus with this strategy a great deal of traders have created ways (which I will discuss later) to take advantage of the discrepancy between the consensus and the actual economic numbers.

Timing
For the most part there is a lag between when the economic information is released and the change in the price of a particular currency pair. It is because of this lag that many of our clients have been able to take advantage of this inefficiency. Usually only a limited number of agents of major news firms are allowed into the room where the economic numbers are released. After the release the agents must enter the data into news providing services such as Reuters or Bloomberg.

The key to success in terms of timing for the trader is getting into the trade before the spike begins. Prior to the announcement most of the smart money is backing away and not trading but as soon as the information hits they will trade. So what becomes important for the trader is the speed at which he can get his information. Therefore if a retail trader has a fast news feed and has software set up to provide him with the discrepancy between the consensus and the actual report, by being small and nimble he can get in as early as some of the professional banks.

For the most part, the banks are using the similar technology to some of the traders that are taking advantage of these situations. Now a lot of the dumber money are using slower news feeds and end up jumping on the spike later than players with these professional news services and end up driving the price up enough for the smart traders to get out of their positions.

Trading the Spike

In order to get in before the spike some technology is required. First you would need a fast data feed, and you can purchase Bloomberg or Reuters. Another option would be to sign up for a service that broadcasts signals during news. These types of services usually have numerous fast data feeds and broadcast buy and sell signals. These services are usually cheaper and easier to implement than actually paying thousands of dollars for the fast data feeds. The one drawback to these services is a lag due to broadcasting of the signal. The next step is to track the news consensus for the release that's about to come out. Some good places to find the consensus numbers is Briefing.com or FXstreet.com or forexfactory.com.

Now you will need to do some historic research and analyze how the market has reacted to the difference between the consensus and the actual result historically. Basically for each release you need to know how large a discrepancy has to be in order for you to act on the trade one way or the other. This takes a lot of research or you can sign up for a news trade call service which already does the research for you. Now that you have your triggers set, I recommend making a calendar for yourself of the economic releases that you will trade and trading during your releases.

It is very important to get in as quickly as possible if your trigger is met in order to get execution. Once in a trade I recommend moving your stop loss to break even after you have gained 10-15 pips (this varies from trade to trade and trailing your position with a trailing stop after you have generated a profit or 15-20 pips. Having a profit turn into a loss is one of the most demoralizing things that can happen in trading and I recommend avoiding it at all costs if you are trading discretionarily. However you must keep in mind that stop losses are not guaranteed and it is very possible for you not to be triggered to exit at a stop level especially in a fast market such as the one during news trading. So it's imperative that you watch your trade.

Execution
Since forex is an off exchange market usually the desks have to either take risk on a client's position or offset with a bank. Since everybody is trading only in one direction during the spike it becomes hard for the forex FCM's to offset the trades. Therefore they sometimes end up taking a hit during the news times. They do not like it at all, some will not allow news trading and some will re-quote or slip clients. One thing I recommend while trading with this approach is taking trades all the time and just slightly increase position size during the news trades.

I also recommend to let the FCM know what you plan on doing before hand so that they can tell you what size you can get away with. At forexyourself.com we have relationships established with many FCM's and will be able to advise you on what you can do at each place. Also a very important thing to keep in mind is the smaller you trade during these releases the more likely you are to get execution.

Risk Management
Because this strategy can make money quickly a lot of people like to swing for the fences with it, for example leveraging out a large portion of their accounts on it. This is a huge mistake for many reasons. On main reason is the bigger you trade the harder it is to get execution at the trading platforms. Also unexpected events can happen and if you are leveraged out fully you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. I recommend using stops with this strategy and never risking over 5% of your account on any of the news trades. With some of the spikes that can be caught it is possible to make some very decent gains.

Post News Trades

A close friend of mine used to trade on the CBOT. He says that the only way he will trade the release is the pull back. Many times a spike will happen and the price will pull back allowing a second opportunity to get in. This is what's called a post news trade. If the price spikes after the news and makes a slight pullback within 10 to 15 minutes it may be a good idea to get in with a fairly tight stop to catch the second leg of the move. Another way to trade some of the less volatile news announcements is a breakout strategy.

With this strategy you can take announcements regardless of the discrepancy wait until a range is created usually about 10 to 15 minutes and than take a trade in the direction of the range breakout. This is an effective way to capture 8-12 pips after the news trades. I recommend doing historical research or subscribing to a service that calls these trades out to determine your timing with precision.
By establishing a point A and B we are able to play the high probability break out trades. This is a trade we took on 9/29/06 USDCAD after the GDP announcement where we took 9 pips. Although this strategy has its drawbacks it allows the trader to get into some high probability trades. I recommend experimenting with different releases to see which one is a good fit. Please keep in mind that this strategy is risky since you are trading during extremely volatile times. Also it is critical to control your emotions and plan each trade with extreme precision.

Three Strategies To Trade Forex During News by Tom Van Geert

In this article, I will discuss three ways how you can take advantage trading forex during economic news releases.

1) Trading the economic numbers strategy

Currency traders try to take advantage of the discrepancy between the forecasted and the actual economic number, you need a very fast news data feed such as Reuters or Bloomberg because you want to get in the trade before the move begins.

Steps to trade the economic data numbers:
1. Purchase a fast news datafeed at Reuters or Bloomberg

2. Track the news consensus and determine the significance of the economic news report being released, if it is not important, do not trade it.

You will be able to find all important data on a good economic data calendar

3. For each important news release you need to know how large a discrepancy has to be in order for you to act on the trade.

4. Finally, watch the news release using your fast datafeed and trade the numbers.

2) Straddle the News strategy

This strategy is very simple and consists of 2 limit orders, one to buy a few pips above the range high and one to sell a few pips below the range low, then wait for the price to breakout triggering one of your orders. Your stop loss order should be placed a few pips below the range low when buying, conversely, a stop loss order should be placed a few pips above the range high when selling.

3) Hedging the News strategy

What is hedging? Hedging enables a currency trader to simultaneously hold Buy and Sell positions in the same currency pair at the same time in one trading account.

1. To hedge, go both long and short at market price 30 min before the news release.

2. Add a protective stop loss order to both long and short positions 30 seconds before the news release.

3. Add a limit order to both long and short positions 30 seconds before the news release.

For more free tutorials, forex tools, free system downloads, news, forex calendar, forex product reviews and articles about forex trading, please visit us at Aboutcurrency.com | Forex

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Tom_Van_Geert

Sunday, August 29, 2010

The 10 Best Questions to Ask at a Job Interview by Karen Burns

You're interviewing for a job. After 20 or 30 minutes, you're asked: "Do you have any questions?"

The worst thing you can do is ask, "What is it your company does?" (Hey, it has happened.) The next worst thing you can do is say, "Um, nope, I don't have any questions."

You need to ask some questions! Asking questions shows your interest in a company and makes you look smarter (smart people tend to be inquisitive). Asking questions gives interviewers a chance to talk about themselves, a thing most people love. And--this is important--asking questions is a way to find out if you really want to work for these people.

Bottom line: Don't make the interviewer do all the heavy lifting. Take an active role in the interview process and improve your chances of landing a job.

So what should you ask? Here are 10 suggestions:

1. "Can you describe a typical day for someone in this position?" If your interviewer appears to be nervous or ill at ease, a non-abstract question like this is a good way to get the ball rolling.

2. "Could you talk about the history of this position?" Specifically, what you're trying to find out is how long the position has existed, how many people have held it, and why it is now available.

3. "What were the major strengths and weaknesses of the last person who held this job?" Or in other words, what kind of act would you have to follow. This is also a chance to find out what happened to your would-be predecessor. How this question is answered will tell you a lot about the dynamics and expectations of this workplace.

4. "What are this position's biggest challenges?" You're naturally curious about the downsides of the job. But find out in a way that makes you look confident and unafraid to tackle problems.

5. "In what area could your team use some improvement?" Do you get an honest-sounding answer? This is important. It's also an opportunity to talk some more about how your skills specifically match this company's needs.

6. "What are the prospects for advancement?" Asking this demonstrates that you have ambition, and makes you look like a big picture person.

7. "How would I be evaluated?" If you want to know an employer's true priorities, and what is really important about the position under discussion, ask this.

8. "Who are the most successful people in this company and why?" A clever way to get a glimpse of a company's values/ethos/culture and how the powers-that-be measure success.

9. "Why do you enjoy working at this company?" Okay, it's a softball question. But the answer, and the tone in which it is given, should tell you a lot. Basically, you are looking to see some sincere enthusiasm here.

10. "Do you have any reservations about me or my ability to perform this job?" It's a gutsy thing to ask. But consider doing so because it's a great way to get real-time feedback on you and your interview skills. Asking for criticism not only earns you points for courage, it could result in some very helpful information.

P.S. Do not ask questions that would be easily answered by consulting the company's website. You will look unprepared, even lazy. You'll also lose the opportunity to gather some valuable insight about this employer and the job on offer.

Thot I copied this here for myself in future just in case that I need this!

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Directional Trading & Higher Time Frame Confirmation - by Jay Norris is the author of Mastering the Currency Market

Directional trading, also known as discretionary trading, is what most retail traders strive to succeed at. In this type of trading the traders attempt to figure out the market’s current direction, and either position themselves in that direction at the most opportune time, or wait till the market changes direction and position themselves to be able to profit from a continuation of this new direction. Contrary to what most beginning trader’s think, most traders who work for investment banks or proprietary trading shops are not directional traders.

Many traders employed by investment banks and prop shops are mechanics trained in the use of counter-trending methods who continuously scan markets in search of those times when one market price gets slightly out of line with a related market and they position there firm’s money in those markets so that when price snaps back into line they profit. They’re method is called arbitrage, and if they can borrow money at 2.6% and make 5 or 6% in their trading operations they are very profitable. The big investment houses in London and New York also employ traders called market makers. This is the trading category that most professional trader’s fall into today. In many ways they aren’t traders by most old school trader’s definition at all. They are computer programmers who write and service the programs that investment firms and trading boutiques use in an attempt to take the other side of every trade you and I make. When you read stories that the investment bank Golden Stash made money every day of the previous quarter it does not mean that they have the secret on how to pick and train traders, it means that Golden Stash’s market making operations managed to book, or get on the other side of a lot of trades and then offset those trades at a sliver of a profit. Big investment banks and prop trading shops aren’t interested in directional trading because it does not make sense from an odds maker’s perspective. The average directional trader places the odds against herself every time he buys or sells at the market. The minute she hits the button to enter a trade by buying the offer, or selling the bid, she gives up an edge. Professional market makers or arbitrage traders never, or rarely give up the edge of buying on the bid and selling on the offer They are not in business to predict where a market is going to move to next, they are in the business of buying the bid and selling the offer, and they want their computers to do that for them thousands of times a day in a hundreds of markets.

We on the other hand, are not interested in that fractional edge. We would much rather play the opposite of that game and only trade once, or twice a day, but position ourselves in a market that trends in our direction all day, or two or three days, or two or three months. The way we attempt do this is by trading in the same direction as the higher time frame trends, and recognizing when those trends are shifting. Knowing how to use higher time frame charts to confirm a price signal on a lower time frame is an essential skill for directional traders and one which can reward you nicely once you master it. Many students will become impatient and take a trade that is coordinated on the lower time frames, and not on the higher time frames. This is a mistake and more often a waste of time, energy and more important money. While you may not always have all the time frames line up, there will be times when this happens. More times than not though, if you are trading an intraday chart and have the current trend on the daily lined up in the same direction, you are going to have the wind at your back. If you have the knowledge to identify markets where the intraday trends are moving in the same direction as daily and weekly trends then you are going to put yourself in a position to reap the trader’s reward.

Trading against the 90% that lose - copied fr Pivotfarm

We often hear figures about the 90% (or even more) that lose money on a consist basis. It’s a ‘fact’ often quoted by gurus and a common belief held by traders. The question for professional traders then becomes how do we benefit from this landslide of people on the wrong side of a trade?

Although an often discussed subject, how we actually use the ‘90% lose’ fact is not often approached. In this article we will discuss 2 freely available pieces of data that with the right analysis and interpretation can provide savvy traders with a great edge to trade against the 90% that lose.

COT Index

The Commitment of Traders Data is created by the CFTC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is published weekly every Friday. This body gathers and publishes the open futures positions on all publicly traded US futures contracts as well as the corresponding options.

The data consists of 3 main categories.

Commercial Traders – These are the bigger players in the markets, the smart money and consist of large firms that actually use the commodity being traded, includes companies like…BP in the Oil and Gas Market, Nestle in the Cocoa and Sugar market. The main function of these traders is to hedge the price of the commodity that they trade in.

Large Speculators – These consist primarily of commodity fund traders and are mainly trend following. The position sizes of these traders tends to be in tandem with the movement of price.

Small Speculators – The little guys, individual traders and small firms, these are the traders that tend to be wrong in the market at the tops and bottoms of markets.

COT data is often misused and misunderstood, in its raw form the COT information describes the number of contracts long/short held by these groups. For example the Large traders component may have 56,000 contracts long S&p 500 emini and 23,000 contracts short. The net position would thus be +33,000 long. Many traders use the net number itself, we feel that this does not provide enough information. +33,000 sounds bullish, but the key is where is this number relative to the historical average of each commodity group.

This is where the COT Index comes into play, the construction of the COT Index is nothing more than putting this weeks net position into a format that will tell you where the current number is in relation to past numbers over the last 6 months. The point is, if the net position is the highest it has been over the 6 month period then the COT Index is 100 and if it is the lowest, then it is 0. Any variation between the two will constitute its respective relation to the historical average.

How do we use this data? We believe that the COT Index offers a good indication of market sentiment and future direction. The key is to follow the smart money (Commercial) and trade against the other 2 groups when they are at an extreme.

Extremes in the data are figures below 30.00 and above 70.00. The ideal situation for a short position is a low reading in the Commercial COT and high readings in the Large and Small trader numbers. For example the Commercial COT Index reads 5.97, this means that the net commercial position is strongly biased to the short side. The Large and Retail (our main contrarian focus) are reading 97.70 and 100.00 respectively, meaning they are the most long side biased they have been in the last 6 months. For traders this means that their focus should be on short side trades, the goal is to follow the commercial traders. This is the ideal alignment of the the groups for optimum success.

This scenario has been present in the EURUSD for the last 2 weeks. So we are expecting some continued short side bias in that pair

Remember this is longer term view so more swing oriented, however the swing view is also important for day traders when trying to line up the higher probability “trend” following trades.

Retail Traders Position Summary

Also known as the Long-Short ratio this is a tool primarily offered by Forex firms, we haven’t been able to come across the same data in the futures as yet. The data is based upon the collective trades and trading direction of many thousands of retail traders (the average Joe). This group of traders is notoriously wrong at predicting market direction, market tops and bottoms with some simple analysis we can look at this data and take a contrarian view, for example if over 70% of retail traders are long USDJPY this offers us a short bias. Savvy traders should then be focusing there energies on short side trades.

It is the 24th of August 2010 today over the 2 months over 70% of retail traders have been positioned on the long side of USDJPY the currency has had a sustained decline in that time, with a major breach of support today.

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