Yes....a nice looking one too. Not to mention it is cheery with my favorite color in it too.
Sure give me....strenght to push forward.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Reality check on my present plans.
I took a step back and do a "Reality" check....esp for my forex trading plan and after a good night sleep plus a chaim-see at Waterloo temple, my conclusion is that I better wait till the end of this month before thinking about quiting the stock market for the moment. As most of my money is still in stocks and may have to take a "big hit" if I will to sell off my present holding, when my forex trading has not really taken off yet ( yes, managed to grow the fund but not fully time tested ).
So....having taken this decision to put a "hold" on the idea for the moment, I shall still continue to learn and do a trial for whatever concept that may help to re-enforce my trading plan.
Meanwhile....will also take another look at what I have for my stocks and what I must do for them. The main thing is try not to sell at a loss but to slowly clear or to re-position the holding to more defensive stocks to hold longer. If can...to hold
more cash since the World Cup has started and most of the market are predicted to slow down during this period. With that happening....then I also expect the share price to soften.
My chaim-see is no 67 which is a GOOD one.....which say that I must continue to up-hold my sense of justice in order to ensure smooth surrounding for myself and family.
With this advice.....I now want to go slow with trying to take on too many things eg teaching others on forex and to over-fund my forex trading account to "anyhow whack".
First....I must ensure that I can really able to "stand-up" and safely say that my trading plan is fool-proof first, for that the best I can say is that so far so good hehe. And hope the run will continue. Esp the plan must be able to go thru a duration
test and come out a "winner", even one month test may not be the answer. It must be able to run for a full season meaning one full year to test the idea against the time and different situation. Yes...I will share idea with wife and children and to include them for the trial.
No teaching or sharing with outsider yet till....I can safely say that yes it has gone thru "hell and back - it is a winner, therefore a good idea" then I shall think to go to my PLAN B. With that....my conscience will be clear. Plus my own house will be in order then and I can proceed to PLAN B.
So....having taken this decision to put a "hold" on the idea for the moment, I shall still continue to learn and do a trial for whatever concept that may help to re-enforce my trading plan.
Meanwhile....will also take another look at what I have for my stocks and what I must do for them. The main thing is try not to sell at a loss but to slowly clear or to re-position the holding to more defensive stocks to hold longer. If can...to hold
more cash since the World Cup has started and most of the market are predicted to slow down during this period. With that happening....then I also expect the share price to soften.
My chaim-see is no 67 which is a GOOD one.....which say that I must continue to up-hold my sense of justice in order to ensure smooth surrounding for myself and family.
With this advice.....I now want to go slow with trying to take on too many things eg teaching others on forex and to over-fund my forex trading account to "anyhow whack".
First....I must ensure that I can really able to "stand-up" and safely say that my trading plan is fool-proof first, for that the best I can say is that so far so good hehe. And hope the run will continue. Esp the plan must be able to go thru a duration
test and come out a "winner", even one month test may not be the answer. It must be able to run for a full season meaning one full year to test the idea against the time and different situation. Yes...I will share idea with wife and children and to include them for the trial.
No teaching or sharing with outsider yet till....I can safely say that yes it has gone thru "hell and back - it is a winner, therefore a good idea" then I shall think to go to my PLAN B. With that....my conscience will be clear. Plus my own house will be in order then and I can proceed to PLAN B.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Stock trading days - about over soon!!
Yes....I will slowing give up on this stock trading thingy and re-group/re-focus my energy to forex trading. Since I am more confident of doing better trading forex than in stocks.
Yes....I will put in "most of my focus/time" on forex trading in order to hone and sharpen my skill in charting/for entry and exit of a trade to bring my learning curve up to speed in order to meet my target on increasing my fund ( balance of it at
end of last month - May ) to at least 5 times that amount haha...now already 3 times so it is not a hard target. Maybe I should increase that to 10 times? Greedy? no...
I believed I can do it too if really put in all my focus.
Yes....to pull the trigger at the right time would make a huge different to one's profit level and at the same time to reduce the stress level in trading well haha.
This is also am important part of trading and it can be done thru having more confidence in one's gut feel for the trade. And the willingness to admit mistake and close a trade asap....when things/situation change.
I find it harder to do that in stock trading becoz of the amount in commission for trading in the first place then end-up with bigger loss. For forex....since the commission is already in the spread and if for major pairs eg EUR/USD, USD/JPY at so low it is fine to call it "wrong" and to exit a trade immediately.
On whether I will totally give up trading stocks....maybe not immediately but if I can confirmed my experiment works, then I think it is a matter of time to give up on that to concentrate on doing well for forex.
I have already told my wife that if this experiment works....I want to continue to stay at my present condo to enjoy the environment and for me to unwind after a hard day of cracking brain over making money!
Now....I found myself understanding why always my "chaim-see" predicted that the wealth is waiting for me to pick it up once the time comes! So....is this my true calling? Is forex trading the answer to all my future source of income??? If yes,
then I am "set" for this LIFE.....thank GOD for it's timely too esp since my company is going over to China soon. Selling insurance, driving taxi or running about as a housing agent may be getting too tough for me....as my mouth is getting hard to "anyhow let-go" as my age is catching up. Plus skin....getting thinner too, getting too sensitive as pocket gets lighter and I spending more time being alone!
Yes....I will put in "most of my focus/time" on forex trading in order to hone and sharpen my skill in charting/for entry and exit of a trade to bring my learning curve up to speed in order to meet my target on increasing my fund ( balance of it at
end of last month - May ) to at least 5 times that amount haha...now already 3 times so it is not a hard target. Maybe I should increase that to 10 times? Greedy? no...
I believed I can do it too if really put in all my focus.
Yes....to pull the trigger at the right time would make a huge different to one's profit level and at the same time to reduce the stress level in trading well haha.
This is also am important part of trading and it can be done thru having more confidence in one's gut feel for the trade. And the willingness to admit mistake and close a trade asap....when things/situation change.
I find it harder to do that in stock trading becoz of the amount in commission for trading in the first place then end-up with bigger loss. For forex....since the commission is already in the spread and if for major pairs eg EUR/USD, USD/JPY at so low it is fine to call it "wrong" and to exit a trade immediately.
On whether I will totally give up trading stocks....maybe not immediately but if I can confirmed my experiment works, then I think it is a matter of time to give up on that to concentrate on doing well for forex.
I have already told my wife that if this experiment works....I want to continue to stay at my present condo to enjoy the environment and for me to unwind after a hard day of cracking brain over making money!
Now....I found myself understanding why always my "chaim-see" predicted that the wealth is waiting for me to pick it up once the time comes! So....is this my true calling? Is forex trading the answer to all my future source of income??? If yes,
then I am "set" for this LIFE.....thank GOD for it's timely too esp since my company is going over to China soon. Selling insurance, driving taxi or running about as a housing agent may be getting too tough for me....as my mouth is getting hard to "anyhow let-go" as my age is catching up. Plus skin....getting thinner too, getting too sensitive as pocket gets lighter and I spending more time being alone!
Weekend again - my view of forex trading.
Aiyo...time flys and I really have enough time to really slow down and enjoy myself lately as I was busy trying out my trade plans for my forex trading and at the same time trying to iron-out the rough edges if any.
So far for my forex trading is going as per plan and I am never happier than now about me able to master it. I have done trading for stocks and forex but now...I
firmly believed that forex is for me. Stocks....is more for the big boys with deep pockets while for forex, it is easier for the pocket. You can start with whatever capital and trade with whatever risk size you can handle.
For newbies....like myself, I remember I start with 50 cts per trade max. Meaning if my trade failed, the most I lose is 50 cts. The reason for it was that in any trading, the newbies will have to go thru the learning curve and usually lose money 95% of the time. I have gone thru that....and after 8 months of losing, I was about to give up....I found a method that can give me a better chance of winning. Having work on it....for the past 2 weeks, I am further testing with new ways of improving it.
Initially my wins were due to gut feel....now I want it to be more sure, and with more trades I am now more confident that I can win 95% of the time whenever I trade as opposed to all my trades before. One of the changes is that I don't want to worry about placing my "stop-loss" further just in case I was wrong with the trade. Then....my first trade order is small which I take as a guide for further trades for the same currency pair. If it didn't work out and show a negative result....I will follow-up with a bigger trade ( usually double the units as the 1st trade ) and if that also failed....I will fire-up another even bigger order ( double the number of units as compared to my 2nd trade ). I have never experience any failure yet for my third trade once it is placed. Usually if it comes to this....it would have bounced back within minutes. This is the reason how I managed to triple my fund in just less than 10 days of trading.
Now...I am trying my idea on my wife with her doing the trading using my method. I will let her try for the next 2 months. I noticed she is not too sure about the trading platform from Onoda. Btw this is just her 2nd day of her trial....and I was instructing her via the phone and not face-to-face. I am sure if I will be personally teach her face-to-face and show her what my plan was, she would catch up quicker. Why??? I want to test whether can I show someone totally "new" how to execute a trade and still can make money. And at the same time....grow her confidence about the whole idea of forex trading. No need to go thru all the stuffs that I went thru with course which took me a full 8 weeks ( once a week = therefore 8 sessions of 3 hrs each time ) then followed by real live trading. Btw I end-up more confused and end-up losing money in my trading. I tried this and that...but in the end, still losing money. I also started to lose confidence about even wanting to trigger a trade.
My method....is aim at cutting the learning curve and straight to making money whenever a trade is triggered. This is what...will boast the confident level of a newbie that forex trading is that easy and at the same time.....profitable therefore fun. Then....to add other important points to the learning eg positioning of lot size ( already tried hands-on during the trading - adding of positions and the size of the orders ), the importance of putting of "stop-loss" and how much to risk per trade, the POWER and the skill of charting and how to read it. The whole idea is to build-up a winning mentality at the beginning to motivate more learning.
I remembered my time with courses which I feel is a waste of time and money ( 3K+ ) and in the end....I am confused and depressed with the trades ( losing 95% of the time ). Until to the extent that whenever I triggered a trade in the class I am willing to bet with the rest of the students that it would end-up kena "stopped out" and true enough....it happened most of the time esp the "intra-day and 3 hrs trades".
I asked the trainers to how to execute a winning trade and what was the trick to do it. The answer....do a core trade and slowing see it grow that is if all the charting and entry is "RIGHT". For intra and 3 hrs trade....set a tight stop-loss before triggering a trade. But now I realised that was the main reason why my trades usually end-up kena "stopped out". Yes...the trainers are super nice people but they cannot ensured you made money whenever you trade, and since you have already paid for the course....we end-up "LL" lan-lan and keep quiet. Same for the courses I attended for stock trading....confirmed sure make money and so on if follow rules but I end up losing bleeding slowly to death and to more depressions. They forget to mention that their methods may not be of use during certain time eg when the share prices have already gone up to their peak. Now I also realised that their method of momentum trading in stocks is useful when the market has "tanked" and rebouncing from the bottom or buying a "slow" up-trending stock. For the normal market...if the stocks are choppy, sure kena "stopped out" too.
The name of the company....offering the forex and stock trading classes/courses is left out. To me....these people are super smart becoz they know trading would be too hard to make money than teaching people esp the "blur and greedy" ones like myself.
In total....spent over 3K+ each to attend their course and still end-up losing another huge bunch of cash. SAD...sighed!
Once my experience works....meaning I can made at least 5 times my fund at end of one month using my method....plus if my wife can also use the idea and made money 95% of the time then I will get more scrap-goats for trials eg my eldest daughter and her bf, then my close friends and so on.
To me, forex...no one can really "corner" the market therefore no risk to show more people to earn a passive income. And once one can mastered the concept....I believed it is life long skill to earn money. The only fear is "GREED" therefore unnecessary risks. If one is willing to go "slow and steady" and is happy to have some spare change to spend every time then he/she will do well knowing this trick. They must only trigger a trade when the price action is within the trading set-up then the chance of making money is good...if not great! A sure thing!
The greatest challenge for me is to teach those who have totally no idea about using a pc or lap-top. And if I can do that...and they can make money then I will say I am a successful trader and trainer. Hope I can last that long....and out-last teaching and showing these aunties/uncles how to make the pips.....and not "mati" from coughing blood first haha.
So far for my forex trading is going as per plan and I am never happier than now about me able to master it. I have done trading for stocks and forex but now...I
firmly believed that forex is for me. Stocks....is more for the big boys with deep pockets while for forex, it is easier for the pocket. You can start with whatever capital and trade with whatever risk size you can handle.
For newbies....like myself, I remember I start with 50 cts per trade max. Meaning if my trade failed, the most I lose is 50 cts. The reason for it was that in any trading, the newbies will have to go thru the learning curve and usually lose money 95% of the time. I have gone thru that....and after 8 months of losing, I was about to give up....I found a method that can give me a better chance of winning. Having work on it....for the past 2 weeks, I am further testing with new ways of improving it.
Initially my wins were due to gut feel....now I want it to be more sure, and with more trades I am now more confident that I can win 95% of the time whenever I trade as opposed to all my trades before. One of the changes is that I don't want to worry about placing my "stop-loss" further just in case I was wrong with the trade. Then....my first trade order is small which I take as a guide for further trades for the same currency pair. If it didn't work out and show a negative result....I will follow-up with a bigger trade ( usually double the units as the 1st trade ) and if that also failed....I will fire-up another even bigger order ( double the number of units as compared to my 2nd trade ). I have never experience any failure yet for my third trade once it is placed. Usually if it comes to this....it would have bounced back within minutes. This is the reason how I managed to triple my fund in just less than 10 days of trading.
Now...I am trying my idea on my wife with her doing the trading using my method. I will let her try for the next 2 months. I noticed she is not too sure about the trading platform from Onoda. Btw this is just her 2nd day of her trial....and I was instructing her via the phone and not face-to-face. I am sure if I will be personally teach her face-to-face and show her what my plan was, she would catch up quicker. Why??? I want to test whether can I show someone totally "new" how to execute a trade and still can make money. And at the same time....grow her confidence about the whole idea of forex trading. No need to go thru all the stuffs that I went thru with course which took me a full 8 weeks ( once a week = therefore 8 sessions of 3 hrs each time ) then followed by real live trading. Btw I end-up more confused and end-up losing money in my trading. I tried this and that...but in the end, still losing money. I also started to lose confidence about even wanting to trigger a trade.
My method....is aim at cutting the learning curve and straight to making money whenever a trade is triggered. This is what...will boast the confident level of a newbie that forex trading is that easy and at the same time.....profitable therefore fun. Then....to add other important points to the learning eg positioning of lot size ( already tried hands-on during the trading - adding of positions and the size of the orders ), the importance of putting of "stop-loss" and how much to risk per trade, the POWER and the skill of charting and how to read it. The whole idea is to build-up a winning mentality at the beginning to motivate more learning.
I remembered my time with courses which I feel is a waste of time and money ( 3K+ ) and in the end....I am confused and depressed with the trades ( losing 95% of the time ). Until to the extent that whenever I triggered a trade in the class I am willing to bet with the rest of the students that it would end-up kena "stopped out" and true enough....it happened most of the time esp the "intra-day and 3 hrs trades".
I asked the trainers to how to execute a winning trade and what was the trick to do it. The answer....do a core trade and slowing see it grow that is if all the charting and entry is "RIGHT". For intra and 3 hrs trade....set a tight stop-loss before triggering a trade. But now I realised that was the main reason why my trades usually end-up kena "stopped out". Yes...the trainers are super nice people but they cannot ensured you made money whenever you trade, and since you have already paid for the course....we end-up "LL" lan-lan and keep quiet. Same for the courses I attended for stock trading....confirmed sure make money and so on if follow rules but I end up losing bleeding slowly to death and to more depressions. They forget to mention that their methods may not be of use during certain time eg when the share prices have already gone up to their peak. Now I also realised that their method of momentum trading in stocks is useful when the market has "tanked" and rebouncing from the bottom or buying a "slow" up-trending stock. For the normal market...if the stocks are choppy, sure kena "stopped out" too.
The name of the company....offering the forex and stock trading classes/courses is left out. To me....these people are super smart becoz they know trading would be too hard to make money than teaching people esp the "blur and greedy" ones like myself.
In total....spent over 3K+ each to attend their course and still end-up losing another huge bunch of cash. SAD...sighed!
Once my experience works....meaning I can made at least 5 times my fund at end of one month using my method....plus if my wife can also use the idea and made money 95% of the time then I will get more scrap-goats for trials eg my eldest daughter and her bf, then my close friends and so on.
To me, forex...no one can really "corner" the market therefore no risk to show more people to earn a passive income. And once one can mastered the concept....I believed it is life long skill to earn money. The only fear is "GREED" therefore unnecessary risks. If one is willing to go "slow and steady" and is happy to have some spare change to spend every time then he/she will do well knowing this trick. They must only trigger a trade when the price action is within the trading set-up then the chance of making money is good...if not great! A sure thing!
The greatest challenge for me is to teach those who have totally no idea about using a pc or lap-top. And if I can do that...and they can make money then I will say I am a successful trader and trainer. Hope I can last that long....and out-last teaching and showing these aunties/uncles how to make the pips.....and not "mati" from coughing blood first haha.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
TGIF - again near weekend
The stock markets....were choppy and except for the blue chips counters the rest of the other shares were dead and being dumped. Just wild swings.
For forex, the EURO managed to strengthen as the week "wear" on while the USD weaken, same goes for the JPY.
For myself....loss money in stocks but made from forex. Now I am growing in confident when trading forex, no matter which pair but I would prefer USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs for the low commission.
For the week...I made less as compared to last week. This week my aim was not as sharp as last week when I scored well with EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. This week I am into all pairs...as long as the price movement is within my set-up. Since I am not too sure how the reactions from the different pairs...I tend to take profit quicker and my trade is more closer to that of scalping for pips. And also....I was "caught" with some of the trades but somehow still managed to close with a small profit for most of my trades.
Why I do the above??? Basically I was trying to test out my method to see whether can it work for all pairs, with this week's result I think it can but to be sure I will
push for it for the whole month. And at the end of the month, I still in the "black" then my method works. That would be GREAT....becoz forex is even better trading tool as compared to stock. It is 24hrs 5 days/week thingy. While the stock market is a 9 to 5 thingy here and still may not allow to "short" when market turns. While for forex...can "short and long" as long as account is funded. Then no one can fully controlled the forex market while stock markets are controlled by the big boys.
True....forex is not a easy thing to fully understand and learnt. I had a hard time for the past 8 months until I found the "trick" for it. I am so far....winning 95% of all trades which is why my confident is high. I can trade whenever I am free and as long as I can focus. Must be fully focus on it...and that is the only way to have a profitable trade, no short-cut or risk losing that trade.
Another thing....do not set daily winning target as that may increased the stress level plus forced one to trade just to make some pips which is wrong concept. I would rather focus to do well and if winning then I would continue until the moment I screwed up one single trade....I closed and stopped all my trading immediately to regroup and rethink what went wrong to cause my losses. That way...I trade and learnt at the same time. And thru....trading with REAL $$$$ only can one picks up the important skills for doing well for forex. It is different....for everyone. Meaning my method may not "work" for others....while others' method may not work for me. I tried teaching my wife and kids....frankly they only managed to give me the "alien look". When I am the one who do the trades....they seem happy and look like they know what I am doing but last night while I called back from office to my wife, she was "blur".....stressed and failed to execute the trades fast enough.
Yes...I only more or less get the "hang" of it, I am now confident enough to teach whoever want to learn to make some spare money or passive income. So far....no one has taken up on my offer. FOC....the way to make $$$ trading forex just one to two hours a day at anywhere in the world where there is a Internet connection. To me, how much you want to make a day, a week and a month depend mainly on how much time and efforts one want to do it.
For forex, the EURO managed to strengthen as the week "wear" on while the USD weaken, same goes for the JPY.
For myself....loss money in stocks but made from forex. Now I am growing in confident when trading forex, no matter which pair but I would prefer USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs for the low commission.
For the week...I made less as compared to last week. This week my aim was not as sharp as last week when I scored well with EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs. This week I am into all pairs...as long as the price movement is within my set-up. Since I am not too sure how the reactions from the different pairs...I tend to take profit quicker and my trade is more closer to that of scalping for pips. And also....I was "caught" with some of the trades but somehow still managed to close with a small profit for most of my trades.
Why I do the above??? Basically I was trying to test out my method to see whether can it work for all pairs, with this week's result I think it can but to be sure I will
push for it for the whole month. And at the end of the month, I still in the "black" then my method works. That would be GREAT....becoz forex is even better trading tool as compared to stock. It is 24hrs 5 days/week thingy. While the stock market is a 9 to 5 thingy here and still may not allow to "short" when market turns. While for forex...can "short and long" as long as account is funded. Then no one can fully controlled the forex market while stock markets are controlled by the big boys.
True....forex is not a easy thing to fully understand and learnt. I had a hard time for the past 8 months until I found the "trick" for it. I am so far....winning 95% of all trades which is why my confident is high. I can trade whenever I am free and as long as I can focus. Must be fully focus on it...and that is the only way to have a profitable trade, no short-cut or risk losing that trade.
Another thing....do not set daily winning target as that may increased the stress level plus forced one to trade just to make some pips which is wrong concept. I would rather focus to do well and if winning then I would continue until the moment I screwed up one single trade....I closed and stopped all my trading immediately to regroup and rethink what went wrong to cause my losses. That way...I trade and learnt at the same time. And thru....trading with REAL $$$$ only can one picks up the important skills for doing well for forex. It is different....for everyone. Meaning my method may not "work" for others....while others' method may not work for me. I tried teaching my wife and kids....frankly they only managed to give me the "alien look". When I am the one who do the trades....they seem happy and look like they know what I am doing but last night while I called back from office to my wife, she was "blur".....stressed and failed to execute the trades fast enough.
Yes...I only more or less get the "hang" of it, I am now confident enough to teach whoever want to learn to make some spare money or passive income. So far....no one has taken up on my offer. FOC....the way to make $$$ trading forex just one to two hours a day at anywhere in the world where there is a Internet connection. To me, how much you want to make a day, a week and a month depend mainly on how much time and efforts one want to do it.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Market Outlook for Monday and the coming week.
Stocks -
It will be a bloodbath at the start of trade here and HK....in fact in almost all markets. Then....depending on the US futures, things may calm down in the afternoon.
So...selling is out of the question unless the stock you are planning to cut is still holding well inspite of all the fears. Then I would strongly advise you to do that to cut down on your holding. Best to remain in CASH...in time of fears, CASH is KING!
Buying? well...unless you have a pretty strong stomach for seeing the stock price falling like no tomorrow then you are welcome to the idea. Not a good idea....btw
for the moment. Why? We have seen stock prices improving lately therefore they have more chances to fall as compared for it to go higher.
Cannot think of a good reason to buy....except if you just want to scalp the market for super short term trade. ( to close positions within the same day ). There will be chances to do that at the start of the market. Go for those stocks that have volume....easier to cover the positions "long or short".
Forex -
For Eur/USD pair....still got some way to fall as more "bad" will surface. Support maybe at 1.16/7 level just as the analyst's predict.
For USD/JPY pair....may see a higher bias due to it's safe haven status as the USD. And for short term....it should be pretty range bounce around the 91.5 to 92.5 level.
For the rest of the major pairs....most will be in lower bias except GBP.
It will be a bloodbath at the start of trade here and HK....in fact in almost all markets. Then....depending on the US futures, things may calm down in the afternoon.
So...selling is out of the question unless the stock you are planning to cut is still holding well inspite of all the fears. Then I would strongly advise you to do that to cut down on your holding. Best to remain in CASH...in time of fears, CASH is KING!
Buying? well...unless you have a pretty strong stomach for seeing the stock price falling like no tomorrow then you are welcome to the idea. Not a good idea....btw
for the moment. Why? We have seen stock prices improving lately therefore they have more chances to fall as compared for it to go higher.
Cannot think of a good reason to buy....except if you just want to scalp the market for super short term trade. ( to close positions within the same day ). There will be chances to do that at the start of the market. Go for those stocks that have volume....easier to cover the positions "long or short".
Forex -
For Eur/USD pair....still got some way to fall as more "bad" will surface. Support maybe at 1.16/7 level just as the analyst's predict.
For USD/JPY pair....may see a higher bias due to it's safe haven status as the USD. And for short term....it should be pretty range bounce around the 91.5 to 92.5 level.
For the rest of the major pairs....most will be in lower bias except GBP.
Markets Tank: Stocks End the Week In Free Fall.
Provided by the Business Insider, June 4, 2010:
Following two straight up days, it looked like the panic might be out of this market. Nope, not even close. Fresh Euro panics combined with signs for weakness in the US to savage markets.
But first, the scoreboard: Dow: -324, down 3.16% S&P 500: -38, down 3.44% NASDAQ: -84, down 3.64%
And now, the top stories:
* The panic really got started pre-market, when a rumor started spreading that SocGen was facing a big derivatives loss. The euro plunged, even though the rumor was never confirmed. Combined with the market's newfound source of panic, Hungary, things were already looking bad early in the day.
* The second thing to club this market was the jobs report, which came in WAY worse than expectations. There's still virtually no private sector job creation. By all accounts, the jobs recovery seems to have plateaued.
* The LMRP is on the Deepwater Horizon gusher, but there's no indication yet that it's working significantly. BP has expressed some optimism that it will work, but nobody will feel confident about that for some time.
* The action in the commodities space was simply horrendous. Copper and palladium, two industrial metals we've been focusing on closely were savaged. Gold however did rally.
* As a politician, Barack Obama is in a total tailspin. The jobs situation made things worse. Earlier this week he appeared to tip a strong report, but it came in week. Then when he spoke this morning, he ignored how bad it was, and sounded foolish.
* A shale explosion in Pennsylvania has cast a pall over the natural gas industry, one group that was expected to benefit in the post Deepwater Horizon era.
* The euro fell below $1.20.
* The oil spill has officially hit the beaches of Pensacola, FL.
The result of a perfect storm???? Are we to see another a stock market crash? The following is a forecast based on historical patterns in price and time.
Equities continue to follow the pattern that preceded the 1929 and 1987 crashes, especially as it relates to time. To recap, the initial leg of the 1929 decline lasted 23 days. A 5 day correction was followed by the next down leg, which lasted 12 days. The initial low was broken on the 6th day of the 3rd down leg and the decline began to accelerate considerably on the 8th day. At the crash low (12th day low), the DJIA had shed 45% of its value from the September 1929 top. The 11th day was the first “Black Monday”.
In 1987, the first leg of the decline consumed 19 days and the following correction lasted 8 days. The initial low was broken on the 6th day of the 3rd down leg and the decline began to accelerate considerably on the 8th day (I didn’t have to change that sentence at all). At the crash low, the Dow was off 38% from its August high. The second “Black Monday” was the 12th day.
Now, in 2010, the first leg of the decline consumed 21 days (as opposed to 23 and 19) and the following correction lasted 6 days (compared with 5 and 8 days). IF the Dow continues to follow the ‘crash path’, then the May low would be broken late next week (the 6th day is Friday the 11th). The decline would accelerate the following next week. 12 days for the crash leg of the decline and 40% (compared with 45% and 37%) would result in the Dow at 6755 on June 22nd. Interestingly, June 21st is a Monday.
Again, this is simply a forecast based on historical patterns in price and time. If the current situation begins to diverge from the path laid out here, then we’ll know that something else is probably in the works. Clearly, the implications for FX (and all markets) are extraordinary.
Don't you agreed if this trend in the stock market continue...we are likely to see the 3rd Black Monday on June 21st. Be prepared!
Following two straight up days, it looked like the panic might be out of this market. Nope, not even close. Fresh Euro panics combined with signs for weakness in the US to savage markets.
But first, the scoreboard: Dow: -324, down 3.16% S&P 500: -38, down 3.44% NASDAQ: -84, down 3.64%
And now, the top stories:
* The panic really got started pre-market, when a rumor started spreading that SocGen was facing a big derivatives loss. The euro plunged, even though the rumor was never confirmed. Combined with the market's newfound source of panic, Hungary, things were already looking bad early in the day.
* The second thing to club this market was the jobs report, which came in WAY worse than expectations. There's still virtually no private sector job creation. By all accounts, the jobs recovery seems to have plateaued.
* The LMRP is on the Deepwater Horizon gusher, but there's no indication yet that it's working significantly. BP has expressed some optimism that it will work, but nobody will feel confident about that for some time.
* The action in the commodities space was simply horrendous. Copper and palladium, two industrial metals we've been focusing on closely were savaged. Gold however did rally.
* As a politician, Barack Obama is in a total tailspin. The jobs situation made things worse. Earlier this week he appeared to tip a strong report, but it came in week. Then when he spoke this morning, he ignored how bad it was, and sounded foolish.
* A shale explosion in Pennsylvania has cast a pall over the natural gas industry, one group that was expected to benefit in the post Deepwater Horizon era.
* The euro fell below $1.20.
* The oil spill has officially hit the beaches of Pensacola, FL.
The result of a perfect storm???? Are we to see another a stock market crash? The following is a forecast based on historical patterns in price and time.
Equities continue to follow the pattern that preceded the 1929 and 1987 crashes, especially as it relates to time. To recap, the initial leg of the 1929 decline lasted 23 days. A 5 day correction was followed by the next down leg, which lasted 12 days. The initial low was broken on the 6th day of the 3rd down leg and the decline began to accelerate considerably on the 8th day. At the crash low (12th day low), the DJIA had shed 45% of its value from the September 1929 top. The 11th day was the first “Black Monday”.
In 1987, the first leg of the decline consumed 19 days and the following correction lasted 8 days. The initial low was broken on the 6th day of the 3rd down leg and the decline began to accelerate considerably on the 8th day (I didn’t have to change that sentence at all). At the crash low, the Dow was off 38% from its August high. The second “Black Monday” was the 12th day.
Now, in 2010, the first leg of the decline consumed 21 days (as opposed to 23 and 19) and the following correction lasted 6 days (compared with 5 and 8 days). IF the Dow continues to follow the ‘crash path’, then the May low would be broken late next week (the 6th day is Friday the 11th). The decline would accelerate the following next week. 12 days for the crash leg of the decline and 40% (compared with 45% and 37%) would result in the Dow at 6755 on June 22nd. Interestingly, June 21st is a Monday.
Again, this is simply a forecast based on historical patterns in price and time. If the current situation begins to diverge from the path laid out here, then we’ll know that something else is probably in the works. Clearly, the implications for FX (and all markets) are extraordinary.
Don't you agreed if this trend in the stock market continue...we are likely to see the 3rd Black Monday on June 21st. Be prepared!
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