Wild ride for the stock market lately

These couple of weeks...the stock and forex markets were like crazy, up and down with big up and big down all within a day. Super choppy....and big fortunes are made and loss.

Why? investors are finding excuses to excite the markets and since with the PIGS countries' troubles....that gave them the reason and the rest is history.

Today...the US market opened lower and slowly managed to close higher esp during the last 30 mins if not then...it will be very ugly here come Monday. Yesterday fell heavily during the last 1hr, today it was the opposite.

So...come Monday, the Asian countries' stock market should be steadier at the start and last till the next day. The bailout package for the Euro is almost ready and you
may want to step inside ( so-called in the market ) or risk missing out on the rebounce if there is one since the market has corrected itself.

With this meltdown are we into Double dips situation?

Yes...with this latest meltdown of DOW - down by 376 points, are we seeing a repeat
of the financial meltdown of 2008/9? This is not a good news esp coming so soon after we start seeing improvement for many companies' results.

Is this another start for the financial meltdown? The part 2 of the story? Esp being so close to the last one and now this is the repeat? The financial cycle is really getting narrower or shorter then the earlier ones. I remember...that it usually take about 5 to 8 yrs before another crash but now blink blink....just out from one and now going into another one! WFT!!! The worst thing is that Dr Gloom is saying we will be seeing another 20% drop before the situation improves.

Yes, time has change....and financial on-going is getting harder to predict. Therefore we must keep up-grading ourselves and be ready for "change" always. Sad thing...for the old and poor! How can they to cope with all these crazy events?

Could this be the start of the "end of the world" as predicted on 2012? We better start to enjoy and spend while we still can, of course not over-spent until totally broke like going to the casinos to gamble day in and night out but to spend on food for the family. At least...when the time comes to die, we all can die with a "full stomach"...be a loaded ghost mah hehe.

Thailand burning....

Yes...so sad to see what is happening there lately. Can only pray for them to stop this crazy actions ( killing and burning ). And esp with the war between rich and poor thingy.

Can happen anywhere....but in Singapore. Yes....lucky that the people here are little "chicken", myself included. Just to busy trying to earn a living....to keep
up with the Jones/Johns. WTF!

In the end...it is still about butter and bread thingy. If people feel that their troubles and problems are taken care off then things will be fine. It is when....
their protest is met with bullets and tear-gas then things turn ugly. Yes...there
are always some who are hell-bent to fight with someone...in this case, the police and soldiers armed with real bullets.

Another thing the people in power must realised is that they are in power becoz people love and vote for them...that they are in power now. The moment this stop
then things will be ugly for them too. No point to hold on the shaking ground...
as they have lost the people's faith in them. But the truth is once these people
tasted POWER...they won't go easy. Why....money, power and fame to be had.

Now...with the perfect storm about to happen, this sort of problem will be happening more often which when more people are going about their daily life "hungry and homeless" or being treated as 2nd class citizen in their own country while the rich are getting richer. Yes...in Singapore, there are these people too. Lately I noticed there are more homeless folks and more people being under-employed due to age or lack of the req'd skills. But at the same time....there are large numbers of "FT"
among us. I urged these in POWER...to open their eyes wide and have a good look on what is happening on the ground and start to listen to the poor and working folks.

Yes...I am lucky to be able to enjoy myself but I am getting worried too as I am getting nearer to the day my work become re-burden. Then...what for myself? May end driving taxi? Be a trader? Work and be one of the thousand "under-employed" people around?

Guess the time may also come for the poor and the working class citizens to take a stand in the coming election to send a clear message to the POWER people. So that they can wake-up and do their job of looking after their citizens better!!! All these are due to the new POWER people....the people born with a golden spoon in their mouth and never have to raise a sweat to get things done to their fancy becoz of their connections or the family background.

In the movie...Crash of the titans, there is a line about people loving and respecting the GODs....that is why there are GODs and once the people start to question their GODs....then the days for the GODs will come to an end. same for those in POWER now....once people start to question what are those being elected are doing for the citizens then....their job will be on shaking ground, yes they can always get the police and soldiers to do the dirty works for them but for how long?
The daily curses from their own people will...casted a bad karma on them and when they die they will end-up burning in hell too. Therefore to be an immortal, one must always keep an ear and eye "open" to see and listen what is happening on the ground and take fast action before the ground boil over and things turn "ugly" as in Thailand. Now the PM and the generals there are just being viewed as blood-thirsty devils by the majority of their own people. How can they order the people to be killed so "openly" esp when most are unarmed....what is the point of shooting a stone-thrower in the head?

Forex

This week...managed to score a couple nice trades on Euro/USD pair. First trade was on Tuesday...which I trade "long" and after I closed the trade after 3+hrs with more than 200+ pips positive, I was able to get a grand of profit.

Then...today, I went "short" in the morning but it went the other way. But after a couple of hours later....managed to show a 30+pips profit and since I am working night, I decided to close it and went to sleep. Another couple of hundreds in the pocket. Oh....forgot to mention that I was following the guide from the Forex team
of MF Global. Helpful...and if there is no set-up for a trade then I just go for my daily swim, feeding fishes, sauna, spa treatment and facial ( the latest 2...was my
latest fun activities from the old spa package which I bought but not used in 2008 hehe ). wah...can get addicted to that :)

Tomorrow...my plan is to just go and sleep, will only trade come Monday. Just too much are happening...and may need time to understand the situation. Only advice is
to stay away from the market and hold cash. Best to take a wait and see before doing
any more trading...be it forex and stock. If need...safer to go "short". Period! And with the Euro getting back to 1.25+ level....this is the set-up I am waiting for....
so I will shorting again. hehehe

Meltdown already started now????

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are tumbling after another drop in the euro and disappointing U.S. employment news have added to investors' already bleak view of the world economy.

The Dow Jones industrials are down more than 200 points Thursday. Interest rates are sliding in the Treasury market as investors once again seek safety in U.S. government debt.

The latest drop means the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index is down more than 10 percent from its 2010 trading high last month. That marks the market's first "correction," or a drop of 10 percent or more, since major indexes tumbled to 12-year lows in March last year.

At midday, the Dow is down 215 at 10,231. The S&P 500 index is down 26 at 1,090. The Nasdaq composite index is down 62 at 2,237.

It is really sad...that there are so many things happening at the same time ( eg the Korean gun-boat sinking thingy, Euro crashed, US job data, Iceland ash clouds, all the fighting and killing in Thailand )....a perfect storm happening?
Now the daily dose of bad news...is sort of getting too often which is bad for common working folks like me.

Wah.....another scary report

Can Europe Be Saved?Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The EU dropped a bomb on global speculators when they unveiled their nearly $1 trillion aid package.

I’m sure South Park fans on trading desks the world over heard the EU’s roar as Cartman’s favorite catch phrase “Respect my Authority!”

Make no mistake: The Europeans are fighting for their financial lives. They faced fiscal annihilation going into last weekend, and were compelled to violate the terms of their own constitution to put this package together.

Of course they won’t tell it that way -- maybe that’s why they are structuring this as “off balance sheet” financing and placing it in an Enron-made-famous vehicle called a "special purpose entity".

The only question worth asking at this point is, will it work? Is it enough to pull Europe back from the brink? Could it be enough to reignite the equity bull market?

As it currently stands, it looks to be enough to postpone the cascading effect of systemic risk that looked about ready to engulf Europe. So score one for the Europeans on avoiding a total melt down.

The big bailout buys the EU time, but it solves none of the deeper problems facing the so called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) countries. It’s going to take sustained economic growth, along with austerity measures, to get the PIIGS back on a solid financial footing.

The EU action should prevent any Sovereign defaults, but it will also slow the process of change that a sovereign default would have wrought. Ultimately it’s a negative for the Euro currency, and without a significant rebound in the global economy, Europe will find itself dealing with magnified versions of the same problems sooner than they think.

It’s also going to cause political and social unrest as more productive Europeans are compelled to shoulder the burdens (via higher tax rates) of less productive Europeans.

Another fly in the global growth ointment happens to be China. While their trillion dollar stimulus plan helped them avoid the 2008 recession, it may have all been in vain.

Always remember that the cure for a recession is the recession itself. Recessions are needed to reset asset valuations, wash out poorly managed enterprises, and set the stage for the next cycle of demand. You can’t avoid them -- they are an inherent part of the capitalist process.

Anyway, back to China. Over the last few months, China has been desperately attempting to cool inflation via government intervention. Additionally, it appears that up to 440 billion dollars worth of Chinese government stimulus money has either been looted or lost through bad bank loans. So we face the distinct possibility of a Chinese banking crisis, matched with a government engineered slow down of the Chinese economy.

Such a possibility does not bode well for commodities, especially if the US Dollar continues to move higher, which I expect it will.

Another country that stands to get hurt by a Chinese slowdown is Australia. The resource boom driven by the industrialization of China has been very beneficial to Australia. Any hiccup in China is sure to be felt in Australia’s equity markets as well as in their currency, which is why both look like prime shorts.

Australia is compounding the effect of a potential China slowdown by trying to get a 40% tax passed on all companies that mine in Australia. In the best of times this would be, as the kids say, an “epic fail” policy, but in this environment it could prove disastrous to the Australian economy if the big mining firms decide to shelve their expansion plans.

Yes....somehow we tend to forget China and the impact it may cause if things really got out hand. This is food for thought?

While I think it’s too early to try and buy equities on this weakness, in my opinion it would be a mistake to say that the equity bull market is dead.

Don’t try and be a hero here. Let the market play out and look for either a successful retest of the lows on the S&P 500 or a break to new highs before committing new money to equities.

Of course, the inverse of that is also applicable ... an unsuccessful test of the lows should be used as an opportunity to increase short positions.

Don’t try and guess what the market will do next. Wait for the appropriate confirmation signal, then back your signal and make sure you use a stop or a hedge to protect your down side.

Saw this by Chris Rowe on May 11.

More Greek Bull? Believe it and Get Hammered! Short the Squeeze! Don't let the European governments play you.

Nothing great has actually happened over there in the last 48 hours, so if you're betting the skies will stay clear now that a bailout has been announced, you might want to reconsider your position.

Remember on September 19, 2008 when the S.E.C. tried to deliver a financial punch in the face to "the evil" short sellers in the U.S. by banning short-selling in 799 bank stocks? The market lost over 25% in 2 weeks, 35% in 2 months, and 45% in 6 months!

The European governments are simply manipulating their markets higher, and they are doing so with tax dollars! Markets aren't rallying in celebration of a solution. Instead, the eurozone is simply stepping in front of a big short position and buying tons of Greek bonds (and they're willing to do the same for whoever else needs help in that neighborhood). It's causing short-sellers, who realize there is new demand keeping prices from falling any further, to buy back their short positions, thereby causing a short-squeeze.

For perspective, consider this the opposite of what happened in the winter of 2008-2009. Hedge funds, whose clients requested cash, were forced to dump tons of stock in great companies that they didn't really want to sell. That pushed the prices of those great companies even lower.

Well, in the eurozone, the shorts don't think Greek bonds should advance, nor should the euro, but they're forced to exit their bearish positions ... pushing prices higher. But nothing has really changed in the last two days.

Even the United States (the world's largest economy, which has the largest quota to pay to the IMF) has its tax dollars being used by European governments to bail out Greece and company.

Let's book some bearish profits on the next downfall, just like we did from September to November, 2008!

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the same exact thing will definitely happen all over again, but it's certainly very possible. And if it happens, you're gonna profit from it. But at the same time, keep in mind that the U.S. government had been manipulating its equity market higher for over a year quite successfully. Can the eurozone do the same? I doubt it.

Let's remember one more thing: The euro-mess just happens to be the hot story of late. It's not the only thing that can smack this market down. Whether the eurozone bailout is a magical silver bullet or not, the fact is in the U.S., the economy is far from perfect. And now that we've seen a sharp jolt in the market, the bears will likely start to smell the blood.

Which Will Be the Fate of the Eurozone?
Sure, maybe a bunch of broke countries will be able to lend each other money. Sure. And heck, maybe it DOES make sense for the European Central Bank to literally accept, as collateral for loans, junk-bonds that have seen their default insurance (CDS) go from $5,000 to over $900,000 to insure $10 million of Greek debt for a five-year period. (And that's up from $250,000 in January of this year.)

But to me, that just doesn't sound like a rosy picture.

Hey, I'll be the first one to play both sides of the market. I have both bullish and bearish positions on right now. Soon I'll have a more bearish model portfolio, and as the market evolves, I will too. Financial markets are a dangerous place to "stick to your guns". So I strongly recommend you stay tuned and keep reading your daily dose of The Tycoon Report for updates on any changes in stance.

Until next Tuesday -- stay safe, stay hedged, limit your downsides, and don't believe the hype.

Wah....spot-on! on hindsight.