Yes...confirmed, why....becoz I also kena "whacked" hard by stocks. Even with low profile ( stopped most of my buying ) still kena whacked.
Nothing went right....stock, forex and unit trust. Even 4D also bad...no kena mah.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Monday, May 24, 2010
Year-Long Rally Is Over: Charts - copied fr cnbc
The year-long trend upwards in the stock market is over and commodities are also set to correct, according to Robin Griffiths, technical analyst at Cazenove Capital. As a result, Griffiths suggested investors look for risk-averse trades.
"The rally, brilliant though it was, was a rally in a bear market and that rally is now over," Griffiths told CNBC Monday.
"The uptrend is broken and it's got further to fall but in an orderly manner," he said. "At the moment the trend is 'risk off'. Up until April the trend was 'risk on.'"
"If there is a rally now, it won't make a new high and you'll find people selling in to it," he added.
There will be about a 25 percent pullback in the market from the high reached in April through to October, Griffiths predicted.
"There will be a mid-summer rally," he said. "But the final end of the correction will be in October, usually latish October."
The rally which will likely take place July into August will be a "significant rally," one which may last four to six weeks, according to Griffiths.
The UK's FTSE-100 index and Germany's DAX index are two of Europe's "good markets," Griffiths told CNBC, adding that the others "have all clearly broken down."
China's Shanghai Composite index is the world's "lead market" and an indicator of where the Western markets are headed, according to Griffiths.
"We are linked to this market. It is now the lead market and it hasn't finished that fall yet," he added.
"The commodity market has also broken its uptrend. It is making a top," Griffiths told CNBC. "Even gold is likely to not go higher than wherever it is in early June."
"I think you'll see a significant several months long pullback even in gold," he added.
Copper, nickel, aluminum and other similar commodities have already made highs and will now have a "significant retrace," Griffiths said.
"So, there's no where to run, money in the bank or risk-averse trade is where you want to be for the duration of the summer," Griffiths advised.
MATI
"The rally, brilliant though it was, was a rally in a bear market and that rally is now over," Griffiths told CNBC Monday.
"The uptrend is broken and it's got further to fall but in an orderly manner," he said. "At the moment the trend is 'risk off'. Up until April the trend was 'risk on.'"
"If there is a rally now, it won't make a new high and you'll find people selling in to it," he added.
There will be about a 25 percent pullback in the market from the high reached in April through to October, Griffiths predicted.
"There will be a mid-summer rally," he said. "But the final end of the correction will be in October, usually latish October."
The rally which will likely take place July into August will be a "significant rally," one which may last four to six weeks, according to Griffiths.
The UK's FTSE-100 index and Germany's DAX index are two of Europe's "good markets," Griffiths told CNBC, adding that the others "have all clearly broken down."
China's Shanghai Composite index is the world's "lead market" and an indicator of where the Western markets are headed, according to Griffiths.
"We are linked to this market. It is now the lead market and it hasn't finished that fall yet," he added.
"The commodity market has also broken its uptrend. It is making a top," Griffiths told CNBC. "Even gold is likely to not go higher than wherever it is in early June."
"I think you'll see a significant several months long pullback even in gold," he added.
Copper, nickel, aluminum and other similar commodities have already made highs and will now have a "significant retrace," Griffiths said.
"So, there's no where to run, money in the bank or risk-averse trade is where you want to be for the duration of the summer," Griffiths advised.
MATI
More Predictable: A Financial Disaster or an Earthquake? - copied fr yahoo.
Financial disasters are less predictable than natural disasters. Those who expose the financial system to major risks can often shift their own risks to others; the depth and breadth of a financial disaster can be expanded by contagion; and it may be impossible to protect innocents from becoming victims of a financial disaster without helping the malefactors who caused the problem.
Predictability: The ability to minimize the damage stemming from a disaster depends in good part on our ability to predict its occurrence early enough to react in ways that reduce the damage. While the predictability of many natural disasters (such as the recent earthquake in Haiti) is low, in some cases it is fairly high and rising as the science improves. For example, in the Mt. St. Helens eruption in May 1980, seismic activity forewarning an eruption occurred some two months earlier, and government-imposed restrictions on access to the danger area based on these early indications limited the loss of life.
Meaningful predictability of financial disasters, on the other hand, is nil. While there are always astute individuals who foresee that trouble is brewing, their knowledge is not translated into government actions to mitigate the damage. A major reason is that counter-opinions may be as widespread and influential. The counter opinions, furthermore, are supported by many who are profiting from the activities that are leading to disaster, and who are likely to belong to organized trade groups.
Underlying financial disasters, in other words, are malefactors who profit from the activities that lead to disaster, obstruct any efforts to restrict these activities, and attempt to shift the cost of the disaster to others. There is no counterpart in natural disasters.
Perceptual Bias: Human beings in general have a tendency to disregard or undervalue low-probability events that would have severe adverse consequences. This bias probably is protective on balance, because if we focused on every low probability hazard that might befall us during the day, we would never get out of bed. Nonetheless, the bias plays an important role in both natural and financial disasters.
Consider home buyers deciding whether or not to move onto an attractive flood plain that over a long period has averaged a devastating flood every 50 years. The probability that a flood will occur in any one year is thus about 2%. Based on experience over many such situations, we know that after some years pass without a flood, people will begin to move in. The longer the period without a flood, the more people behave as if the likelihood of one has gone down, though there is no rational basis for this belief. This behavior is reinforced by positive contagion -- the fact that some have done it successfully encourages others to follow.
The perceptual bias in the buildup to a financial disaster is even more powerful. Consider mortgage lenders who can make a lot of money writing loans for subprime borrowers so long as home prices continue to rise at a rate that is twice the long-term average. The longer the high rate of appreciation continues, the more lenders jump in the game, as if the longer period increases the likelihood that the price bubble will go on indefinitely. Yet the reality is that the longer the above-normal rate of price appreciation continues, the closer is the date when the bubble must burst. Positive contagion plays a role here, too – WAMU is making a lot of money in this market, why not us?
The perceptual bias of lenders confronting the sub-prime market is stronger than that of home purchasers confronting a flood plain in the following sense. If it were known with certainty that there would be a devastating flood in, say, 5 years, few home buyers would buy in. However, if it were known with certainty that the house price bubble would not pop for 5 years, lenders would not be deterred at all. They would assume that they could make much more money in the 5 years than they would lose in the sixth, especially if they can shift most of the loss onto others.
Risk-Shifting: Ignoring the potential losses from a future disaster is rational to the degree that such losses can be shifted onto others. Some risk-shifting goes on in the case of natural disasters in the form of subsidized insurance to those exposed to natural hazards, or free assistance rendered after the disaster hits. But such risk-shifting is small potatoes compared to what can happen in the build-up to a financial disaster.
The lenders originating sub-prime mortgages sold them as fast as they could to investment bankers who securitized them as fast as they could. The risk finally lodged with investors who purchased securities they didn’t understand, relying on credit ratings provided by agencies who were paid for ratings by the investment bankers.
Negative Contagion: As noted above, positive contagion arises in the buildup to both natural and financial disasters, but negative contagion arises only in connection with financial disasters. The scope of natural disasters – how extensive, widespread and long-lasting they are -- is determined by nature, but the scope of financial disasters is expansible through negative contagion. Fear is perhaps the most contagious of human emotions.
A financial disaster involves a loss of confidence in the ability of one or more major players to meet their obligations. In the bank crises that occurred during the 19th century and through the great depression of the 1930s, the loss of confidence was largely limited to commercial banks and their ability to repay depositors. Contagion resulted in bank runs, which could jump from one bank to another, often with little discrimination.
In contrast, runs during the recent crisis involved withdrawals from money market mutual funds holding commercial paper, and refusals by investors to roll over maturing repurchase agreements and commercial paper. All three types of runs were stopped by early and resolute actions by the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, the crisis would have spiraled out of control.
Assisting the Victims: The victims of natural disasters are clearly identifiable, and the only issue that arises in connection with helping them is their possible culpability for being in harm’s way. The potential victims of financial disasters may be very difficult to identify early enough to help, and helping them usually requires helping the malefactors who owe them money. These “bailouts” are a major source of political turmoil.
In sum, financial disasters pose more difficult and complex policy issues than natural disasters. That doesn’t mean, of course, that financial disasters constitute a greater threat to mankind. While a financial disaster mishandled could cause a world-wide and long-lived depression, a natural disaster could destroy the world.
Predictability: The ability to minimize the damage stemming from a disaster depends in good part on our ability to predict its occurrence early enough to react in ways that reduce the damage. While the predictability of many natural disasters (such as the recent earthquake in Haiti) is low, in some cases it is fairly high and rising as the science improves. For example, in the Mt. St. Helens eruption in May 1980, seismic activity forewarning an eruption occurred some two months earlier, and government-imposed restrictions on access to the danger area based on these early indications limited the loss of life.
Meaningful predictability of financial disasters, on the other hand, is nil. While there are always astute individuals who foresee that trouble is brewing, their knowledge is not translated into government actions to mitigate the damage. A major reason is that counter-opinions may be as widespread and influential. The counter opinions, furthermore, are supported by many who are profiting from the activities that are leading to disaster, and who are likely to belong to organized trade groups.
Underlying financial disasters, in other words, are malefactors who profit from the activities that lead to disaster, obstruct any efforts to restrict these activities, and attempt to shift the cost of the disaster to others. There is no counterpart in natural disasters.
Perceptual Bias: Human beings in general have a tendency to disregard or undervalue low-probability events that would have severe adverse consequences. This bias probably is protective on balance, because if we focused on every low probability hazard that might befall us during the day, we would never get out of bed. Nonetheless, the bias plays an important role in both natural and financial disasters.
Consider home buyers deciding whether or not to move onto an attractive flood plain that over a long period has averaged a devastating flood every 50 years. The probability that a flood will occur in any one year is thus about 2%. Based on experience over many such situations, we know that after some years pass without a flood, people will begin to move in. The longer the period without a flood, the more people behave as if the likelihood of one has gone down, though there is no rational basis for this belief. This behavior is reinforced by positive contagion -- the fact that some have done it successfully encourages others to follow.
The perceptual bias in the buildup to a financial disaster is even more powerful. Consider mortgage lenders who can make a lot of money writing loans for subprime borrowers so long as home prices continue to rise at a rate that is twice the long-term average. The longer the high rate of appreciation continues, the more lenders jump in the game, as if the longer period increases the likelihood that the price bubble will go on indefinitely. Yet the reality is that the longer the above-normal rate of price appreciation continues, the closer is the date when the bubble must burst. Positive contagion plays a role here, too – WAMU is making a lot of money in this market, why not us?
The perceptual bias of lenders confronting the sub-prime market is stronger than that of home purchasers confronting a flood plain in the following sense. If it were known with certainty that there would be a devastating flood in, say, 5 years, few home buyers would buy in. However, if it were known with certainty that the house price bubble would not pop for 5 years, lenders would not be deterred at all. They would assume that they could make much more money in the 5 years than they would lose in the sixth, especially if they can shift most of the loss onto others.
Risk-Shifting: Ignoring the potential losses from a future disaster is rational to the degree that such losses can be shifted onto others. Some risk-shifting goes on in the case of natural disasters in the form of subsidized insurance to those exposed to natural hazards, or free assistance rendered after the disaster hits. But such risk-shifting is small potatoes compared to what can happen in the build-up to a financial disaster.
The lenders originating sub-prime mortgages sold them as fast as they could to investment bankers who securitized them as fast as they could. The risk finally lodged with investors who purchased securities they didn’t understand, relying on credit ratings provided by agencies who were paid for ratings by the investment bankers.
Negative Contagion: As noted above, positive contagion arises in the buildup to both natural and financial disasters, but negative contagion arises only in connection with financial disasters. The scope of natural disasters – how extensive, widespread and long-lasting they are -- is determined by nature, but the scope of financial disasters is expansible through negative contagion. Fear is perhaps the most contagious of human emotions.
A financial disaster involves a loss of confidence in the ability of one or more major players to meet their obligations. In the bank crises that occurred during the 19th century and through the great depression of the 1930s, the loss of confidence was largely limited to commercial banks and their ability to repay depositors. Contagion resulted in bank runs, which could jump from one bank to another, often with little discrimination.
In contrast, runs during the recent crisis involved withdrawals from money market mutual funds holding commercial paper, and refusals by investors to roll over maturing repurchase agreements and commercial paper. All three types of runs were stopped by early and resolute actions by the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, the crisis would have spiraled out of control.
Assisting the Victims: The victims of natural disasters are clearly identifiable, and the only issue that arises in connection with helping them is their possible culpability for being in harm’s way. The potential victims of financial disasters may be very difficult to identify early enough to help, and helping them usually requires helping the malefactors who owe them money. These “bailouts” are a major source of political turmoil.
In sum, financial disasters pose more difficult and complex policy issues than natural disasters. That doesn’t mean, of course, that financial disasters constitute a greater threat to mankind. While a financial disaster mishandled could cause a world-wide and long-lived depression, a natural disaster could destroy the world.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Wild ride for the stock market lately
These couple of weeks...the stock and forex markets were like crazy, up and down with big up and big down all within a day. Super choppy....and big fortunes are made and loss.
Why? investors are finding excuses to excite the markets and since with the PIGS countries' troubles....that gave them the reason and the rest is history.
Today...the US market opened lower and slowly managed to close higher esp during the last 30 mins if not then...it will be very ugly here come Monday. Yesterday fell heavily during the last 1hr, today it was the opposite.
So...come Monday, the Asian countries' stock market should be steadier at the start and last till the next day. The bailout package for the Euro is almost ready and you
may want to step inside ( so-called in the market ) or risk missing out on the rebounce if there is one since the market has corrected itself.
Why? investors are finding excuses to excite the markets and since with the PIGS countries' troubles....that gave them the reason and the rest is history.
Today...the US market opened lower and slowly managed to close higher esp during the last 30 mins if not then...it will be very ugly here come Monday. Yesterday fell heavily during the last 1hr, today it was the opposite.
So...come Monday, the Asian countries' stock market should be steadier at the start and last till the next day. The bailout package for the Euro is almost ready and you
may want to step inside ( so-called in the market ) or risk missing out on the rebounce if there is one since the market has corrected itself.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
With this meltdown are we into Double dips situation?
Yes...with this latest meltdown of DOW - down by 376 points, are we seeing a repeat
of the financial meltdown of 2008/9? This is not a good news esp coming so soon after we start seeing improvement for many companies' results.
Is this another start for the financial meltdown? The part 2 of the story? Esp being so close to the last one and now this is the repeat? The financial cycle is really getting narrower or shorter then the earlier ones. I remember...that it usually take about 5 to 8 yrs before another crash but now blink blink....just out from one and now going into another one! WFT!!! The worst thing is that Dr Gloom is saying we will be seeing another 20% drop before the situation improves.
Yes, time has change....and financial on-going is getting harder to predict. Therefore we must keep up-grading ourselves and be ready for "change" always. Sad thing...for the old and poor! How can they to cope with all these crazy events?
Could this be the start of the "end of the world" as predicted on 2012? We better start to enjoy and spend while we still can, of course not over-spent until totally broke like going to the casinos to gamble day in and night out but to spend on food for the family. At least...when the time comes to die, we all can die with a "full stomach"...be a loaded ghost mah hehe.
of the financial meltdown of 2008/9? This is not a good news esp coming so soon after we start seeing improvement for many companies' results.
Is this another start for the financial meltdown? The part 2 of the story? Esp being so close to the last one and now this is the repeat? The financial cycle is really getting narrower or shorter then the earlier ones. I remember...that it usually take about 5 to 8 yrs before another crash but now blink blink....just out from one and now going into another one! WFT!!! The worst thing is that Dr Gloom is saying we will be seeing another 20% drop before the situation improves.
Yes, time has change....and financial on-going is getting harder to predict. Therefore we must keep up-grading ourselves and be ready for "change" always. Sad thing...for the old and poor! How can they to cope with all these crazy events?
Could this be the start of the "end of the world" as predicted on 2012? We better start to enjoy and spend while we still can, of course not over-spent until totally broke like going to the casinos to gamble day in and night out but to spend on food for the family. At least...when the time comes to die, we all can die with a "full stomach"...be a loaded ghost mah hehe.
Thailand burning....
Yes...so sad to see what is happening there lately. Can only pray for them to stop this crazy actions ( killing and burning ). And esp with the war between rich and poor thingy.
Can happen anywhere....but in Singapore. Yes....lucky that the people here are little "chicken", myself included. Just to busy trying to earn a living....to keep
up with the Jones/Johns. WTF!
In the end...it is still about butter and bread thingy. If people feel that their troubles and problems are taken care off then things will be fine. It is when....
their protest is met with bullets and tear-gas then things turn ugly. Yes...there
are always some who are hell-bent to fight with someone...in this case, the police and soldiers armed with real bullets.
Another thing the people in power must realised is that they are in power becoz people love and vote for them...that they are in power now. The moment this stop
then things will be ugly for them too. No point to hold on the shaking ground...
as they have lost the people's faith in them. But the truth is once these people
tasted POWER...they won't go easy. Why....money, power and fame to be had.
Now...with the perfect storm about to happen, this sort of problem will be happening more often which when more people are going about their daily life "hungry and homeless" or being treated as 2nd class citizen in their own country while the rich are getting richer. Yes...in Singapore, there are these people too. Lately I noticed there are more homeless folks and more people being under-employed due to age or lack of the req'd skills. But at the same time....there are large numbers of "FT"
among us. I urged these in POWER...to open their eyes wide and have a good look on what is happening on the ground and start to listen to the poor and working folks.
Yes...I am lucky to be able to enjoy myself but I am getting worried too as I am getting nearer to the day my work become re-burden. Then...what for myself? May end driving taxi? Be a trader? Work and be one of the thousand "under-employed" people around?
Guess the time may also come for the poor and the working class citizens to take a stand in the coming election to send a clear message to the POWER people. So that they can wake-up and do their job of looking after their citizens better!!! All these are due to the new POWER people....the people born with a golden spoon in their mouth and never have to raise a sweat to get things done to their fancy becoz of their connections or the family background.
In the movie...Crash of the titans, there is a line about people loving and respecting the GODs....that is why there are GODs and once the people start to question their GODs....then the days for the GODs will come to an end. same for those in POWER now....once people start to question what are those being elected are doing for the citizens then....their job will be on shaking ground, yes they can always get the police and soldiers to do the dirty works for them but for how long?
The daily curses from their own people will...casted a bad karma on them and when they die they will end-up burning in hell too. Therefore to be an immortal, one must always keep an ear and eye "open" to see and listen what is happening on the ground and take fast action before the ground boil over and things turn "ugly" as in Thailand. Now the PM and the generals there are just being viewed as blood-thirsty devils by the majority of their own people. How can they order the people to be killed so "openly" esp when most are unarmed....what is the point of shooting a stone-thrower in the head?
Can happen anywhere....but in Singapore. Yes....lucky that the people here are little "chicken", myself included. Just to busy trying to earn a living....to keep
up with the Jones/Johns. WTF!
In the end...it is still about butter and bread thingy. If people feel that their troubles and problems are taken care off then things will be fine. It is when....
their protest is met with bullets and tear-gas then things turn ugly. Yes...there
are always some who are hell-bent to fight with someone...in this case, the police and soldiers armed with real bullets.
Another thing the people in power must realised is that they are in power becoz people love and vote for them...that they are in power now. The moment this stop
then things will be ugly for them too. No point to hold on the shaking ground...
as they have lost the people's faith in them. But the truth is once these people
tasted POWER...they won't go easy. Why....money, power and fame to be had.
Now...with the perfect storm about to happen, this sort of problem will be happening more often which when more people are going about their daily life "hungry and homeless" or being treated as 2nd class citizen in their own country while the rich are getting richer. Yes...in Singapore, there are these people too. Lately I noticed there are more homeless folks and more people being under-employed due to age or lack of the req'd skills. But at the same time....there are large numbers of "FT"
among us. I urged these in POWER...to open their eyes wide and have a good look on what is happening on the ground and start to listen to the poor and working folks.
Yes...I am lucky to be able to enjoy myself but I am getting worried too as I am getting nearer to the day my work become re-burden. Then...what for myself? May end driving taxi? Be a trader? Work and be one of the thousand "under-employed" people around?
Guess the time may also come for the poor and the working class citizens to take a stand in the coming election to send a clear message to the POWER people. So that they can wake-up and do their job of looking after their citizens better!!! All these are due to the new POWER people....the people born with a golden spoon in their mouth and never have to raise a sweat to get things done to their fancy becoz of their connections or the family background.
In the movie...Crash of the titans, there is a line about people loving and respecting the GODs....that is why there are GODs and once the people start to question their GODs....then the days for the GODs will come to an end. same for those in POWER now....once people start to question what are those being elected are doing for the citizens then....their job will be on shaking ground, yes they can always get the police and soldiers to do the dirty works for them but for how long?
The daily curses from their own people will...casted a bad karma on them and when they die they will end-up burning in hell too. Therefore to be an immortal, one must always keep an ear and eye "open" to see and listen what is happening on the ground and take fast action before the ground boil over and things turn "ugly" as in Thailand. Now the PM and the generals there are just being viewed as blood-thirsty devils by the majority of their own people. How can they order the people to be killed so "openly" esp when most are unarmed....what is the point of shooting a stone-thrower in the head?
Forex
This week...managed to score a couple nice trades on Euro/USD pair. First trade was on Tuesday...which I trade "long" and after I closed the trade after 3+hrs with more than 200+ pips positive, I was able to get a grand of profit.
Then...today, I went "short" in the morning but it went the other way. But after a couple of hours later....managed to show a 30+pips profit and since I am working night, I decided to close it and went to sleep. Another couple of hundreds in the pocket. Oh....forgot to mention that I was following the guide from the Forex team
of MF Global. Helpful...and if there is no set-up for a trade then I just go for my daily swim, feeding fishes, sauna, spa treatment and facial ( the latest 2...was my
latest fun activities from the old spa package which I bought but not used in 2008 hehe ). wah...can get addicted to that :)
Tomorrow...my plan is to just go and sleep, will only trade come Monday. Just too much are happening...and may need time to understand the situation. Only advice is
to stay away from the market and hold cash. Best to take a wait and see before doing
any more trading...be it forex and stock. If need...safer to go "short". Period! And with the Euro getting back to 1.25+ level....this is the set-up I am waiting for....
so I will shorting again. hehehe
Then...today, I went "short" in the morning but it went the other way. But after a couple of hours later....managed to show a 30+pips profit and since I am working night, I decided to close it and went to sleep. Another couple of hundreds in the pocket. Oh....forgot to mention that I was following the guide from the Forex team
of MF Global. Helpful...and if there is no set-up for a trade then I just go for my daily swim, feeding fishes, sauna, spa treatment and facial ( the latest 2...was my
latest fun activities from the old spa package which I bought but not used in 2008 hehe ). wah...can get addicted to that :)
Tomorrow...my plan is to just go and sleep, will only trade come Monday. Just too much are happening...and may need time to understand the situation. Only advice is
to stay away from the market and hold cash. Best to take a wait and see before doing
any more trading...be it forex and stock. If need...safer to go "short". Period! And with the Euro getting back to 1.25+ level....this is the set-up I am waiting for....
so I will shorting again. hehehe
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