Saturday, November 03, 2007

No such thing as a sure bet

Yes! confirmed esp for the above statement. At best....the odds are better maybe 30/70 but only if one is prepared to lose some money and sleep, it is best just to keep an eye on the market esp like now.

Yes! one can still win some money....only but if ONE is prepared to be patient and wait for the opportunity. Must be damn nibble in this type of market or end-up losing the pants too.

Sometime....by holding a losing bet may not be a "great idea" as no one can predict the bottom for the stock at this moment. At best....after some homeworks and midnight oil....can come up with some guidelines before placing the bets.

SGX - for the week ending 2/11

Well for the past week stock market, lots of up and down. Lucky managed to control
myself from diving into it. Anyway....after the last screw-up, I am kind of very kiasi. It is no fun losing money....trust me on that. Might as well use the money to go for a holiday or buy something for the family and myself. That is better as everyone can be happy.

From the look of the market here....it has gone up too fast and the volume has come down, this show that the ave retail punters ( uncle and anuties ) are still nursing their wounds esp when the China stocks came crashing down about 2 weeks ago.

The market has to correct before the year-end rally....and for this to happen, the index gotto come down to 3300. Therefore there is still a 10% drop before things can stablised. This is when the volume dropped further....signalling that the weak sellers have sold out their holdings.

I would focus on STX PO ( below $3.60 ), Olam ( below $3.00 ), Semb Mar ( below $4.40 ) and Berlian Laju ( below 33 cents ). As for the China shares....best to give them a rest hahaha. Maybe a couple can be follow, China Energy ( below 1.20 ) and Yangzijiang ( below $2.00 ). For quickies, Chip Eng Seng ( below 64 cents ) and Manhattan Resources ( below 65 cents ).

Mainly for the long term then....STX PO is the best bet if can buy below $3.60 as the stock is selling back in Korea at $7.20 or at double my target. Unless some huge correction happen or some hidden forex losts by the company ( eg Semb Mar & Labroy )
occur out of the blue....this stock should continue to go up to around $5 by end of the year. The thing is this....this stock is very violate.

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