The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (“YZJ” or the “Company”) would like to clarify with regards to the recent news reports in general about the Company considering/planning alternative listing options.
The Board of YZJ wishes to highlight that a number of investment banks and financial advisors have approached the Company with proposals for a dual listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and/or a listing of Taiwan Depository Receipts on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Company has only conducted preliminary talks with these parties and no decision has been made on this matter. The Company will make further announcements if there is any development on the subject matter. The Company is continuously exploring a range of business avenues and opportunities in order to enhance shareholders’ value. Discussions with various counterparties from time to time are part and parcel of YZJ’s continuing efforts in this regard.
Accordingly, shareholders and investors should exercise caution when dealing in the shares of the Company and should refrain from taking action in relation to their shares on the basis of or in reliance of any rumours in the market
Saturday, April 17, 2010
COSCO VS Yangzijiang – Which One is Under Value and Have Higher Upside Potential?
China shipping stocks have been on crazy run up recently. It really gave me a big knock and made me think what has happened to trigger this bullish run. One of the my lesson learnt is never chase the stock when it is over value. Thus, I have to go back to the stock fundamental and stock chart to see whether I am too early or too late to catch this mini bull run on shipping stocks.
Comparison of COSCO & Yangzijiang Fundamental and Stock Value.
Base on FY09 Financial Report (ended Dec 2009):
Fundamentally Yangzijiang (Net Profit %, Net Cash from Operation, ROA, ROE) are much better than COSCO and the stock is still under value (PE < 15 for past two to three years). If YZJ is to reach the 2008 PE of 15.85, the fair intrinsic value should be about $2.20 (base on $0.139 EPS in 2009). COSCO current PE is 35.2 which is extremely over value. The fair intrinsic value of COSCO should be $0.735 using PE of 15 & $0.049 FY09 EPS.
Base on Yangzijiang stock chart, YZJ has just broken an important resistance at $1.26 recently and the next significant resistance is at $1.472 (123.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level). There are also no other significant resistance when I extend the chart to 2 years period. Thus, there is still about 8% upside potential to the next resistance technically and 62.5% upside potential to reach $2.20 fundamentally (base on Intrinsic Value).
As for COSCO chart, the stock price has reached resistance of 138.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level. If COSCO clears this resistance, the next one will be $1.81 (150% Fibonacci Retracement Level). As the stock price is impossible to keep going up, I would expect COSCO to have big difficulty to clear this level. Thus, upside potential is about 5% technically. In addition, RSI and Stochastic indicated COSCO is Overbought.
Fundamentally, the downside potential for COSCO is very high as COSCO is over value base on the intrinsic value calculation. If there is no significant EPS improvement in the coming quarter earning announcement, I expect heavy selling will start in COSCO soon.
The above article is food for thought esp with the "play" still on for Chinese shipping/shipyard stocks listed here.
Comparison of COSCO & Yangzijiang Fundamental and Stock Value.
Base on FY09 Financial Report (ended Dec 2009):
Fundamentally Yangzijiang (Net Profit %, Net Cash from Operation, ROA, ROE) are much better than COSCO and the stock is still under value (PE < 15 for past two to three years). If YZJ is to reach the 2008 PE of 15.85, the fair intrinsic value should be about $2.20 (base on $0.139 EPS in 2009). COSCO current PE is 35.2 which is extremely over value. The fair intrinsic value of COSCO should be $0.735 using PE of 15 & $0.049 FY09 EPS.
Base on Yangzijiang stock chart, YZJ has just broken an important resistance at $1.26 recently and the next significant resistance is at $1.472 (123.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level). There are also no other significant resistance when I extend the chart to 2 years period. Thus, there is still about 8% upside potential to the next resistance technically and 62.5% upside potential to reach $2.20 fundamentally (base on Intrinsic Value).
As for COSCO chart, the stock price has reached resistance of 138.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level. If COSCO clears this resistance, the next one will be $1.81 (150% Fibonacci Retracement Level). As the stock price is impossible to keep going up, I would expect COSCO to have big difficulty to clear this level. Thus, upside potential is about 5% technically. In addition, RSI and Stochastic indicated COSCO is Overbought.
Fundamentally, the downside potential for COSCO is very high as COSCO is over value base on the intrinsic value calculation. If there is no significant EPS improvement in the coming quarter earning announcement, I expect heavy selling will start in COSCO soon.
The above article is food for thought esp with the "play" still on for Chinese shipping/shipyard stocks listed here.
4D
Shit....wasted the 3rd prize today 1247. Due to the serious losses for my shares during last week, I sort of hold back my bullets and this 1247 came in as 3rd prize.
So sayang....lor!
So sayang....lor!
Yangzijiang up-date
MEDIA RELEASE – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Yangzijiang aiming to enter the robust offshore sector
Offered to acquire PPL Holdings by intending to take a 50.1% stake.
Rest 45% and 4.9% in PPL Holdings would be taken up respectively by strategic partner, a Middle East investor and Yangzijiang’s Non-Executive Director, Mr Yu Kebing.
Total consideration for PPL Holdings at US$155 million.
Yangzijiang would place 83.555 million shares at S$1.295 per share to the Middle East investor to fund its proposed stake of 50.1% in PPL Holdings.
SINGAPORE – 17 April 2010 – Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited (“Yangzijiang” or “the Group” or “扬子江船业控股有限公司”), one of PRC’s leading and most enterprising shipbuilder listed on the SGX Main Board, on 15 April 2010 entered into a placement agreement with a Middle East investor ("Investor") in relation to the placement of 83,555,000 new ordinary shares in the capital of Yangzijiang at the issue price of S$1.295 per new share.
BAKER TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
OFFER FROM YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD. TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF PPL HOLDINGS PTE LTD.
PPLH holds an aggregate direct and indirect 15% stake in PPL Shipyard Pte Ltd ("PPL Shipyard"). The balance 85% is held by Sembcorp Marine Limited ("SML").
Wah lau....and looking at how the price of Baker Techn "runs" last Friday morning before being "halted" before lunch time, I believe come Monday when the shares of this stock are lifted for trading they will cause a lot of excitement ( be it positive or negative ) to the market. And the likely outcome will be a positive one at that esp seeing how the share price for both NOL and Cosco recovering towards the last hour of trading last Friday. Both were traded down most of the time on Friday but towards the last hour of trading....both bounced from the low of the day to come in and closed positive with volume too.
Btw this is humble opinion, happy trading!
Yangzijiang aiming to enter the robust offshore sector
Offered to acquire PPL Holdings by intending to take a 50.1% stake.
Rest 45% and 4.9% in PPL Holdings would be taken up respectively by strategic partner, a Middle East investor and Yangzijiang’s Non-Executive Director, Mr Yu Kebing.
Total consideration for PPL Holdings at US$155 million.
Yangzijiang would place 83.555 million shares at S$1.295 per share to the Middle East investor to fund its proposed stake of 50.1% in PPL Holdings.
SINGAPORE – 17 April 2010 – Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited (“Yangzijiang” or “the Group” or “扬子江船业控股有限公司”), one of PRC’s leading and most enterprising shipbuilder listed on the SGX Main Board, on 15 April 2010 entered into a placement agreement with a Middle East investor ("Investor") in relation to the placement of 83,555,000 new ordinary shares in the capital of Yangzijiang at the issue price of S$1.295 per new share.
BAKER TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
OFFER FROM YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD. TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF PPL HOLDINGS PTE LTD.
PPLH holds an aggregate direct and indirect 15% stake in PPL Shipyard Pte Ltd ("PPL Shipyard"). The balance 85% is held by Sembcorp Marine Limited ("SML").
Wah lau....and looking at how the price of Baker Techn "runs" last Friday morning before being "halted" before lunch time, I believe come Monday when the shares of this stock are lifted for trading they will cause a lot of excitement ( be it positive or negative ) to the market. And the likely outcome will be a positive one at that esp seeing how the share price for both NOL and Cosco recovering towards the last hour of trading last Friday. Both were traded down most of the time on Friday but towards the last hour of trading....both bounced from the low of the day to come in and closed positive with volume too.
Btw this is humble opinion, happy trading!
Friday, April 16, 2010
Another Reason Most Day Traders Are Deluding Themselves
One of the biggest delusions many small investors suffer from--from casual mom-and-pops to full-time day-traders--is that the market is something like a level playing field.
It's not, of course.
The average institutional investor has resources and information that the average small investor can only dream of.
These include:
Multi-million-dollar research budgets
Full-time traders and analysts with years of experience and relationships all over the industry
One-on-one and group meetings with the managements of several hundred companies a year
Deep networks of industry contacts that help them sniff out any hint of fundamental change
30 brokerage firms calling them all day long with every tidbit of information they unearth
Quantitative and technical models that allow them to analyze more in seconds than a casual investor can analyze in a year
Instant trading execution, sometimes provided by computers co-located at trading exchanges
And so on...
What they also have, as everyone was reminded this morning when news broke that Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta is under investigation for passing inside info to Galleon's Raj Rajaratnam, is friends.
It doesn't matter how vigilant the SEC gets. There is simply no way to police facial expressions and body language. When you're at a cocktail party with your buddy who knows what is going on inside a particular company, you don't have to be a mind-reader to get a good sense of it yourself.
The buddy doesn't need to tell you anything specific. The buddy doesn't need to pass you secret confidential documents. The buddy doesn't need to give you hand signals. All the buddy has to do is look at you in a certain way. To paraphrase the old saying, a facial impression is worth 1000 words (and it also has the convenient feature of not being persuasive evidence in court).
Facial expressions don't have to just come from buddies, of course. When you're meeting one-on-one with a CEO, you can learn more from the way a CEO responds to a startling question than you can from a thousand page SEC filing. And no one will ever complain that you've been given material non-public information--even though that's just what you've been given.
Unless all personal contact between executives of companies and investors or agents of investors is banned (which it obviously can't and won't be), this type of information will continue to provide professionals with a valuable edge. And only a tiny portion of it will ever be declared illegal or prosecuted--in part because it's not against the law.
This one is equally discouraging too...shit! Best to stick to my day job haha!
It's not, of course.
The average institutional investor has resources and information that the average small investor can only dream of.
These include:
Multi-million-dollar research budgets
Full-time traders and analysts with years of experience and relationships all over the industry
One-on-one and group meetings with the managements of several hundred companies a year
Deep networks of industry contacts that help them sniff out any hint of fundamental change
30 brokerage firms calling them all day long with every tidbit of information they unearth
Quantitative and technical models that allow them to analyze more in seconds than a casual investor can analyze in a year
Instant trading execution, sometimes provided by computers co-located at trading exchanges
And so on...
What they also have, as everyone was reminded this morning when news broke that Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta is under investigation for passing inside info to Galleon's Raj Rajaratnam, is friends.
It doesn't matter how vigilant the SEC gets. There is simply no way to police facial expressions and body language. When you're at a cocktail party with your buddy who knows what is going on inside a particular company, you don't have to be a mind-reader to get a good sense of it yourself.
The buddy doesn't need to tell you anything specific. The buddy doesn't need to pass you secret confidential documents. The buddy doesn't need to give you hand signals. All the buddy has to do is look at you in a certain way. To paraphrase the old saying, a facial impression is worth 1000 words (and it also has the convenient feature of not being persuasive evidence in court).
Facial expressions don't have to just come from buddies, of course. When you're meeting one-on-one with a CEO, you can learn more from the way a CEO responds to a startling question than you can from a thousand page SEC filing. And no one will ever complain that you've been given material non-public information--even though that's just what you've been given.
Unless all personal contact between executives of companies and investors or agents of investors is banned (which it obviously can't and won't be), this type of information will continue to provide professionals with a valuable edge. And only a tiny portion of it will ever be declared illegal or prosecuted--in part because it's not against the law.
This one is equally discouraging too...shit! Best to stick to my day job haha!
Here's What Day Traders Don't Understand.
As we explained earlier, day-trading is one of the dumbest jobs there is: According to one academic study, 4 out of 5 people who do it lose money and only 1 in 100 do it well enough to be described as "predictably profitable."
Most of the folks who do it, in other words, would be far better off working at Burger King.
As is often the case when we bring up these facts, some readers screamed. One said that our brain-damage was made patently obvious by the fact that Wall Street professionals day-trade all day. If day-trading were so dumb, then why would professionals do it?
Here's what that particular reader is missing:
Most Wall Street traders get paid to day-trade other people's money.*
That's a huge difference compared to what most stay-at-home day-traders do.
The average professional trader gets paid somewhere between 1% and 3% of assets per year just to trade those assets all day. The average hedge-fund trader gets paid another 20% on top of that for any "gains" he or she makes (regardless of whether the gains are the result of the trader's trading or the bull market).
The average stay-at-home day-trader, meanwhile, trades his or her own money. And while many of these traders do fine on a gross basis (before costs), once the costs of this trading are deducted (commissions, taxes, research and information, time), their performance is usually downright awful.
The reason so many professionals day-trade, in other words, is that getting paid to day-trade other people's money is one of the best businesses in the world.
Day-trading your OWN money, meanwhile, is one of the worst.
* There's another difference, too, of course: Most Wall Street traders have skills, information, and tools that day-traders can only dream of. Trading is a zero-sum game: Market moves aside, every dollar won by one trader comes out of the pocket of another trader. Day traders competing against Wall Streeters is the equivalent of a college football team (or Pee Wee team, depending on the day-trader's skill) competing against a pro team. Is it possible to win? Yes. But it's highly unlikely (1 in 100). Wall Street's winnings do have to come from somewhere, though, so Wall Street thanks the day traders for playing.
Wah...this is bad. Very discouraging news for any wannebes trader like myself! But frankly it does make sense too esp looking at my funding after the last 4 months.
Most of the folks who do it, in other words, would be far better off working at Burger King.
As is often the case when we bring up these facts, some readers screamed. One said that our brain-damage was made patently obvious by the fact that Wall Street professionals day-trade all day. If day-trading were so dumb, then why would professionals do it?
Here's what that particular reader is missing:
Most Wall Street traders get paid to day-trade other people's money.*
That's a huge difference compared to what most stay-at-home day-traders do.
The average professional trader gets paid somewhere between 1% and 3% of assets per year just to trade those assets all day. The average hedge-fund trader gets paid another 20% on top of that for any "gains" he or she makes (regardless of whether the gains are the result of the trader's trading or the bull market).
The average stay-at-home day-trader, meanwhile, trades his or her own money. And while many of these traders do fine on a gross basis (before costs), once the costs of this trading are deducted (commissions, taxes, research and information, time), their performance is usually downright awful.
The reason so many professionals day-trade, in other words, is that getting paid to day-trade other people's money is one of the best businesses in the world.
Day-trading your OWN money, meanwhile, is one of the worst.
* There's another difference, too, of course: Most Wall Street traders have skills, information, and tools that day-traders can only dream of. Trading is a zero-sum game: Market moves aside, every dollar won by one trader comes out of the pocket of another trader. Day traders competing against Wall Streeters is the equivalent of a college football team (or Pee Wee team, depending on the day-trader's skill) competing against a pro team. Is it possible to win? Yes. But it's highly unlikely (1 in 100). Wall Street's winnings do have to come from somewhere, though, so Wall Street thanks the day traders for playing.
Wah...this is bad. Very discouraging news for any wannebes trader like myself! But frankly it does make sense too esp looking at my funding after the last 4 months.
Friday : up-date
Overall this is one of the worst week for my stocks. Kena stop-out for 2 of them Foxconn and Wilmar plus the heavy losses from SMIC and Ecowise. Losses amounted to
about 25% of my total funding.
Well....still it is basicly my fault for taking my eyes off the stocks as I was sleeping ( working night ) mah. Okay...in future, will size down my holding whenever I am working so that I can take immediate action to prevent losses.
about 25% of my total funding.
Well....still it is basicly my fault for taking my eyes off the stocks as I was sleeping ( working night ) mah. Okay...in future, will size down my holding whenever I am working so that I can take immediate action to prevent losses.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Stock market outlook for next week
For SGX, look like there will be more rotation plays for penny stocks since those index stocks had broken new highs. So they are consolidating the gains at the moment.
Yes...the market is looking "a bit toppish". May not to good idea to buy and hold now in such situation.
My pick for the coming week would be Ecowise, SoundGlobal and Midas.
For HK market, look like it has more legs to go higher. The theme is still to ride this out with the index stocks at the moment until the 23,100 level then to tone down the holding for a consolidation period.
My pick...here would be Lenovo HK:0992, Zhejiang Exp HK:0576 and Neo-Neon HK:1868.
Reminder - very important to ensure the "stop-loss" is in place always after buying in.
Yes...the market is looking "a bit toppish". May not to good idea to buy and hold now in such situation.
My pick for the coming week would be Ecowise, SoundGlobal and Midas.
For HK market, look like it has more legs to go higher. The theme is still to ride this out with the index stocks at the moment until the 23,100 level then to tone down the holding for a consolidation period.
My pick...here would be Lenovo HK:0992, Zhejiang Exp HK:0576 and Neo-Neon HK:1868.
Reminder - very important to ensure the "stop-loss" is in place always after buying in.
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