Saturday, June 19, 2010

Attended a trading talk by MF Global

A wake-up call....after hearing what they said and also confirmed my opinion with regards to trading stocks. Just too hard esp with the company's news and result, and by the time....I heard it, it is already stray news too late for making money and if to enter the market then....likely to lose is greater than winning money if trade.

It is a 9 to 5 market....and after market closed, if anything "happening" in major markets will impact our market when it opens the next day here. Can "gap-up/down".
Then with the latest "last minute market big moves in US market"....we also kena
"whacked" if it's a big down day there.

Therefore....the stock market is very risky to be in as compared to those which trade 24hrs/day eg forex, index and commodity like gold, silver, oil.

Now....with MF Global launching the new trading platform for trading all of the above just using the same account, I will switch out and pay more attentions to the new opportunity. But I will first....get myself ready for more lessons before doing some water-testing for them.

Must learn to trade smart and make my money work harder for me, so that I have time to relex, swim, go feed fishes, gym, spa even stay home haha. At same time to do all these....full-time!

Market up-date for the past week

Forex....loss back what I gained from Mon to Wed on Thu. And by Fri after a couple more losing trades ( stopped out ) confidence also kena "whacked" which is harder to handle than just losing money. Luckily....after looking thru what I have done "right" until Thu then what I done "wrong" on Thu and Fri, I come to the conclusion that I must get back to the forex trading basic again before "cheonging" again. Anyway...it is just a case of forgetting the basic rules of trading that caused the loss and nothing to do with my trading call.

Stock....this week is a profitable week. Made money with my few trades eg Midas, Baker Tech for SG market and China Shipping Cont, Guangdong Inv, Xinao Gas for HK market. Now I am left with only SoundGlobal for SG and SMIC for HK market.

My trading plan for this coming week....may focus more on stocks for the moment and will buy on any pullback as I believed that with the start of the football - World Cup, volume is less and the market is also in for the closing of the Qtr/Yr-end for some companies, therefore there will be window-closing opportunities ( pushing up of share price for companies ).

For SG market....will focus on Midas ( just broke peak and is within less than 6% plus volume is coming back ) and Baker Tech ( if no issue with it's legal fight with SMC over it's stake in PPL then it will be a windfall for it's share price ).

For HK market....esp with the index back to above 20K points, there are a few stocks looking "good and cheap" eg Foxconn after getting "hit" due to what is happening in it's China plants, Fosun....with it's recent stake in Club Med, China Food....very cheap now with it's recent sell-down, Nine Dragons....same thing looking cheap after the sell-down, SMIC....same thing too after falling from HKD1.09 to present HKD0.66 with it's counter-parts from Taiwan TSM and UMC predicted further increase demand for "chips" in the coming years. Then....the China banks eg ICBC and BOC esp Agbank IPO is coming out soon.

For forex....I will go slow for the moment and watch the direction for the Eur/USD and USD/JYP. Will place trades....on Tuesday once the direction is clearer. From there, I will slowing build up positions for other pairs. It is a case of back to basic for me hahaha.

The BREAK EVEN Forex Trade - by Nial Fuller . .

Being profitable in the forex is where we all want to be. And how we measure this is often by quantifying our results in terms of profit versus losses. Yet, this measure cannot be, by itself, sufficient to sustain our motivation. All traders have periods of losses en route to profits. As a result, a single-minded desire for profits may itself be a factor in furthering losses and actually reduce the potential for success. For once a person desires profits, resulting losses turn into disappointments. The experience of disappointment may then unleash a host of destructive emotions. The problem then becomes how we handle these losses and not the fact that they occur. How can a trader overcome becoming obsessed with profits and being emotionally unprepared for the realities of losses?

The solution is to step outside the conventional profit and loss paradigm that dominates us and realize that between the realm of profits and losses there is a neutral zone that allows the trader to PAUSE. From a mathematical perspective the neutral zone is represented by the number 0 (zero). Obviously one moves from the negative numbers of losing trades to the positive column of winning trades.

But having trades that are break-even, or 0 (zero) on the profit and loss register or reasonably near that range, is actually a very good outcome. Foremost among its benefits is it allows one to keep intact the capital at risk for another and perhaps better trade. Breaking even may not elicit the praise of others but it is a sustaining event. How you get to break even is also important.

If the 0 (zero) entry on the trading log is the result of a profitable trade turning into a loss, it may represent an astute observation by the trader that conditions have changed and getting out is preferable to seeing negative numbers. On the other hand, a break-even trade may be the outcome of a quick exit by the trader fearing a loss. A frequent number of these break-even trades in one’s account may reveal the trader is becoming overwhelmed by the setting in of destructive emotions such as anxiety, guilt, fear or greed. We all know that this is not an uncommon experience. However, the break-even trade also can become a huge opportunity to evolve into a mature trader by going beyond an obsession for profits.

Many of us approach each trade in an arrogant fashion, as the chance to grab pips. This concept reflects a commonly held view that trading is a zero-sum battle between the trader and the market, where the trader wins or loses against the market. But some of the best trading methods produce a win ratio just above 50% or less!. The majority of trades are roughly break-even. Every flat or small losing trade keep us in the game. Traders get in trouble when they stubbornly hold onto a trade refusing to believe their hunch, system or simply their timing, is wrong.

Yet, there is a better and ultimately more effective approach. What if we humbly reconfigure our mindset and view the forex market as a magnificently complex place full of opportunity that when properly understood provides valuable trades? We would experience a shift in our entire mental and emotional focus. The market then becomes not our enemy, but a field of opportunities that when understood can produce profits. Those who take this stance do not demand nor expect pips to be handed over as if they belong to us. Instead we aspire to obtain a great trade by recognizing a winning price action pattern. Pips or profits become what we earn by applying our knowledge. The market becomes our partner, it is a reciprocal relationship. The ability to trade each day by emptying ourselves first of ego satisfaction may not be easy, but it is the distinguishing characteristic of traders in the process of transforming and evolving themselves from frenetic beginnings to a level of competence.

If your next trade is neither a profit nor a loss, pause and relax, because in the case of forex trading, the result of 0 (zero) or break even is a positive number in the long run.

Conclusion - yes, this happened to me on Friday esp after getting whacked on Thursday in Eur/USD and Eur/JPY pairs. Then on Friday....already start to pull back on my trades and after a couple of stopped out USD/CHF then USD/SGD, my confidence took a big hit and I started to question my own methods and trading plan. I had a few chances to close the trades on Thu and Fri but I didn't. Now after reading this....I feel better but I will still tone down my trades this coming week.
Btw for the week....I sort of break even after losing the profit I made on Mon till Wed. Yes, esp on Wed...I closed too soon for Eur/USD and USD/CHF if not I would have double on funding again. That is why...I took the risk on Thu when the trades started to turn against. I can easily close and walk away but I did not do so.

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tO hAVe FuN wiTH mY liFe aND aLsO wAnT mY loVED oNeS tO hAVE tHE SaME tOO. :) bUt iN rEAL LiFe tHaT sHouLd bE sOOn.