Had some pips from my last week's USD/SGD forex pairs on last Monday evening when the trailing stop was triggered, still a few hundred $$$ profit but on Tuesday....it went higher.
No trading on Tuesday...and on Wednesday, went long again for EUR/CHF pair and this time managed to ride out at least the bulk of the run and added nearly a grand to my profit. Today....kena stopped out on a few small trades but still holding on to my main bulk of my trade USD/SGD - 3 std lots which I picked up when it went south from 1.344 to 1.341. Wah...but then it went even lower to below 1.3392, lucky didn't kena stopped out yet as my stop-loss is at 1.3385. Now at 1.30am it has recovered back to 1.3426/32 and there are a couple of hundred of profits for my account too. Not about to close...as I have been aiming for this trade since I sold off last Monday and now I am getting this pair even cheaper. My cost - at around 1.3418 as compared to my last entry at 1.3455 that is why I won't "chicken too early" and will give this pair some running space.
For HK stocks....managed to make back some losses too so on the whole, it is a reasonable profitable week for me. Hope I didn't speak too soon hehe!
Thursday, September 09, 2010
BOC Interest Rate Decision Forex Trading Plan 09/08/10 - by Henry Lui
Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate decision, BOC Carney will also announce a Rate Statement to further explain today’s decision. Here’s what analysts are expecting:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 0.75%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 1.00% BUY 0.75%
The Trade Plan
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be hiking its Overnight Rate as the majority of analysts agree (14 out 20 as surveyed by Bloomberg). BOC is likely to remain optimistically cautious in its tone but the overall market is expecting a rate hike.
However, since this rate decision is not perceived as a “done deal”, it is possible that we’ll see market react to both possibilities, therefore we would be looking to BUY USD/CAD if BOC decides to leave rates unchanged and SELL USD/CAD if BOC decides to hike as expected.
I’ll be trading this release using Spike Trading method as the odds for either possibilities are high, therefore it is almost guaranteed that we’ll see strong market movement immediately after the release.
The Market
As CAD gained across the board last Friday after NFP release showed the underlying market sentiment that a better U.S. economy is likely to ease BOC’s concerns over global uncertainty, which increases the probability for BOC to hike rates today.
As a matter of fact, Credit Suisse is predicting about 65% of probability for a rate hike today; however, there is 35% of possibility that BOC may just hold rates unchanged and adopt a wait-and-see stance for the time being.
Additional Thoughts
BOC has been on target with its monetary policy and the series of rate hikes since June has been done in such a way that avoided parity level on the USDCAD pair. This may be another opportunity to BOC to hike interest rate and at the same time warn the market over future uncertainty, which will make CAD less strong, thus keeping the volatility to a minimum.
On the other hand, we are also seeing the economic growth in the 2nd quarter slowing, along with negative job data. With US economic outlook lagging, BOC may pause for the time being…
Since both outcomes have merits, market will move after the rate decision, and the idea is to get in and hold on to the trade as USDCAD usually doesn’t retrace much.
Pre-News Considerations
I’ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD prior to the release, from recent highs.
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 0.75%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 1.00% BUY 0.75%
The Trade Plan
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be hiking its Overnight Rate as the majority of analysts agree (14 out 20 as surveyed by Bloomberg). BOC is likely to remain optimistically cautious in its tone but the overall market is expecting a rate hike.
However, since this rate decision is not perceived as a “done deal”, it is possible that we’ll see market react to both possibilities, therefore we would be looking to BUY USD/CAD if BOC decides to leave rates unchanged and SELL USD/CAD if BOC decides to hike as expected.
I’ll be trading this release using Spike Trading method as the odds for either possibilities are high, therefore it is almost guaranteed that we’ll see strong market movement immediately after the release.
The Market
As CAD gained across the board last Friday after NFP release showed the underlying market sentiment that a better U.S. economy is likely to ease BOC’s concerns over global uncertainty, which increases the probability for BOC to hike rates today.
As a matter of fact, Credit Suisse is predicting about 65% of probability for a rate hike today; however, there is 35% of possibility that BOC may just hold rates unchanged and adopt a wait-and-see stance for the time being.
Additional Thoughts
BOC has been on target with its monetary policy and the series of rate hikes since June has been done in such a way that avoided parity level on the USDCAD pair. This may be another opportunity to BOC to hike interest rate and at the same time warn the market over future uncertainty, which will make CAD less strong, thus keeping the volatility to a minimum.
On the other hand, we are also seeing the economic growth in the 2nd quarter slowing, along with negative job data. With US economic outlook lagging, BOC may pause for the time being…
Since both outcomes have merits, market will move after the rate decision, and the idea is to get in and hold on to the trade as USDCAD usually doesn’t retrace much.
Pre-News Considerations
I’ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD prior to the release, from recent highs.
Upcoming Signals Overview (Sept. 6 ~ 10, 2010) - by Henry Lui
Hello folks:
Here are the news releases that we’ll be trading this week. I’ll be sending you a more detailed analysis usually a day ahead of their schedule. Thanks.
Tue September 7, 2010 12:30am EDT – AU RBA Interest Rate
Wed September 8, 2010 9:00am EDT – CA BOC Interest Rate
Wed September 8, 2010 10:00am EDT – CA IVEY PMI
Wed September 8, 2010 9:30pm EDT – AU Employment Change
Thu September 9, 2010 7:00am EDT – UK BOE Rate Decision
Fri September 10, 2010 7:00am EDT – CA Employment Change
And of course, we do have several untradable yet high impact releases scheduled for the week:
Thu September 9, 2010 8:30am EDT – US & CA Trade Balances – Market seems to ignore this release, therefore it’s better we stay away from them.
Thu September 9, 2010 8:30am EDT – US Unemployment Claims – Market is getting used to this release and we rarely see any significant push.
Fri Septermber 10, 2010 4:30am EDT – UK PPI – Even the CPI release out of UK is losing its appeal to move the market, much less the PPI.
Looking at the overall market sentiment and the fact that we’ve gotten a nice positive surprise in the US NFP release last Friday, it’s entirely possible that we are staring at the early stage of trend reversal, one that would push USD and JPY lower as concerns over double-dip recession subsides. Some big name analysts are now switching their position and unwinding their USD longs brought upon by the exaggerated demand for safe-haven instruments during the last few weeks as concerns over recession was exacerbated by Bernanke’s dovish stance and the possibility of a second round of stimulus, better known as quantitative easing.
What was changed this week from last week is, time. We now have time to wait and see. Big Ben won’t have to make a decision to start codename QE2 (Quantitative Easing Round 2) yet, and if jobs market shows resilience in recovery, evidenced by the next NFP release (one is a fluke, two could be a trend), Bernanke could very well wait until next year before undertaking such a measure, and the very fact that Feds might be delaying the controversial QE2 program, is in itself a positive message for Risk Appetite.
Therefore, I expect to see some general sentiment moving it that direction this week. Although it is still at early stage of a trend reversal, which by definition is prone to fake moves, I’d advice everyone to watch the development in EURUSD and USDJPY for more taletelling signs.
As far as weekly trends for the week, I am biased towards further risk appetite sentiment, but I do understand there are risks to assume direction this early in the trend reversal stage. Perhaps we should see a more defined market next week so that we can take advantage of it.
Understand that he is coming out with another new site - "10K to 1 mil in 12 months". Wow....that is POWERFUL and I would be damn happy if I can made double my 10K in 12 months haha! Frankly....I won't dare to say that it is not possible as there are some lucky souls who will make it with their trading. Look at POWER-UP site, they also claimed some newbies who made tens of thousands in a short period of trading. Beginner's luck????
Not likely....maybe they have better in-sight and luck during their trades.
I too had a huge run early June....then end-up loosing most of the profits when I added more technical stuffs and changed my trading method. Too much changes until I lost how to enter and exit a trade....and managed to win only small profits while end-up loosing "big losses". Well...I will monitor Henry's new site and his methods when it is out.
Here are the news releases that we’ll be trading this week. I’ll be sending you a more detailed analysis usually a day ahead of their schedule. Thanks.
Tue September 7, 2010 12:30am EDT – AU RBA Interest Rate
Wed September 8, 2010 9:00am EDT – CA BOC Interest Rate
Wed September 8, 2010 10:00am EDT – CA IVEY PMI
Wed September 8, 2010 9:30pm EDT – AU Employment Change
Thu September 9, 2010 7:00am EDT – UK BOE Rate Decision
Fri September 10, 2010 7:00am EDT – CA Employment Change
And of course, we do have several untradable yet high impact releases scheduled for the week:
Thu September 9, 2010 8:30am EDT – US & CA Trade Balances – Market seems to ignore this release, therefore it’s better we stay away from them.
Thu September 9, 2010 8:30am EDT – US Unemployment Claims – Market is getting used to this release and we rarely see any significant push.
Fri Septermber 10, 2010 4:30am EDT – UK PPI – Even the CPI release out of UK is losing its appeal to move the market, much less the PPI.
Looking at the overall market sentiment and the fact that we’ve gotten a nice positive surprise in the US NFP release last Friday, it’s entirely possible that we are staring at the early stage of trend reversal, one that would push USD and JPY lower as concerns over double-dip recession subsides. Some big name analysts are now switching their position and unwinding their USD longs brought upon by the exaggerated demand for safe-haven instruments during the last few weeks as concerns over recession was exacerbated by Bernanke’s dovish stance and the possibility of a second round of stimulus, better known as quantitative easing.
What was changed this week from last week is, time. We now have time to wait and see. Big Ben won’t have to make a decision to start codename QE2 (Quantitative Easing Round 2) yet, and if jobs market shows resilience in recovery, evidenced by the next NFP release (one is a fluke, two could be a trend), Bernanke could very well wait until next year before undertaking such a measure, and the very fact that Feds might be delaying the controversial QE2 program, is in itself a positive message for Risk Appetite.
Therefore, I expect to see some general sentiment moving it that direction this week. Although it is still at early stage of a trend reversal, which by definition is prone to fake moves, I’d advice everyone to watch the development in EURUSD and USDJPY for more taletelling signs.
As far as weekly trends for the week, I am biased towards further risk appetite sentiment, but I do understand there are risks to assume direction this early in the trend reversal stage. Perhaps we should see a more defined market next week so that we can take advantage of it.
Understand that he is coming out with another new site - "10K to 1 mil in 12 months". Wow....that is POWERFUL and I would be damn happy if I can made double my 10K in 12 months haha! Frankly....I won't dare to say that it is not possible as there are some lucky souls who will make it with their trading. Look at POWER-UP site, they also claimed some newbies who made tens of thousands in a short period of trading. Beginner's luck????
Not likely....maybe they have better in-sight and luck during their trades.
I too had a huge run early June....then end-up loosing most of the profits when I added more technical stuffs and changed my trading method. Too much changes until I lost how to enter and exit a trade....and managed to win only small profits while end-up loosing "big losses". Well...I will monitor Henry's new site and his methods when it is out.
Forex Trading Tips - copied from Henry Lui
Here is a list of some of my previous posts on various tips and insights into the currency market. If you are new to news trading or even to Forex trading in general, this would be a place to start:
The Grandma Indicator – Too many times traders chase after a trade or get in the market when everyone else is getting out. Hopefully by understanding this basic concept, you won’t chasing trades anymore…
Pick Your Battles – I see more and more novice traders spend far too much time trading, and sometimes even when the market is flat trying to force a trade. I’ve realized this long ago, and I’ve decided to share a little insight…
New to News Trading? Start Here - This is my welcome post to all new traders starting in the fundamental analysis space, and I try to put together valuable information to get you started.
FOREX News Trading Trigger Sheet - This is a link to download my deviation sheet containing all of the news releases that I trade, along with a video showing you how to use this report.
FOREX Tricks Video – My dumbest trick (yet it works!) - This is a special shortcut or loophole, that I’ve discovered one day when comparing different brokers. Make sure you watch this video.
Currency Strength Meter – Add 30 pips to your trade - This meter needs no introduction, but if this is the first time you read about this, you NEED to get it, and the best part is, it’s FREE!
The Grandma Indicator – Too many times traders chase after a trade or get in the market when everyone else is getting out. Hopefully by understanding this basic concept, you won’t chasing trades anymore…
Pick Your Battles – I see more and more novice traders spend far too much time trading, and sometimes even when the market is flat trying to force a trade. I’ve realized this long ago, and I’ve decided to share a little insight…
New to News Trading? Start Here - This is my welcome post to all new traders starting in the fundamental analysis space, and I try to put together valuable information to get you started.
FOREX News Trading Trigger Sheet - This is a link to download my deviation sheet containing all of the news releases that I trade, along with a video showing you how to use this report.
FOREX Tricks Video – My dumbest trick (yet it works!) - This is a special shortcut or loophole, that I’ve discovered one day when comparing different brokers. Make sure you watch this video.
Currency Strength Meter – Add 30 pips to your trade - This meter needs no introduction, but if this is the first time you read about this, you NEED to get it, and the best part is, it’s FREE!
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