Searching For a Market Bottom? Keep Looking?

For those hoping that the seven-day blowout on Wall Street may have created a market bottom, there are two words to contemplate: Not yet.

Over the past week the stock market has posted its biggest drop ever, tumbling more than 20 percent and triggering angst and despair among both investors and traders on the floor.

But most analysts watching the situation think market activity, by sheer volume if nothing else, is inadequate to declare that the worst has passed, though there are definite signs that it is coming.

"You really just want people to say, 'I can't take it anymore,' and I think we're getting to that position," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "Selling begets selling, that's what happens, until it kind of washes out, until the last seller comes in and says, 'That's it.' Then there's kind of an eerie quiet."

But while hedge funds and industrial investors have been bailout out of positions, individual retail investors have still not reached the severe panic point.

"We're seeing volatility right now that's really starting to freak out the investor for sure," Ben Lichtenstein, president of Traders Audio, said on CNBC. "Once the investor, the normal, everyday-type investor starts to see his original investment start to decrease, that's where the fear-type selling could kick in."

Krosby said that despite Thursday's washout, in which stocks across the board lost about 7 percent of their value, volume was too thin. Total market volume was about 1.8 billion shares, and she would expect a number closer to 2.5 billion to 3 billion to see a true capitulation.

"You'd like to see more selling," Krosby said. "That's something that you look for, really, really having selling and you didn't have that yesterday and you didn't have that in many of the really strong down days."

Fear and Greed in Rallies and Bull Traps - when will we hit bottom?

These are unprecedented times. The markets are showing their true animal nature because they are trading on emotions, rather than on technicals or fundamentals.

Even the most seasoned market veterans are scratching their heads. Where is the rally? What are people waiting for? What about the “dirt cheap” valuations on a number of stocks? What about the extreme sentiment of doom and gloom? Bullish sentiment is now the lowest since the summer of 1994, so where is the contrarian sentiment reaction? What about the “big boys” stepping up to the plate to buy here? What about the new and unprecedented global rate cuts? What about the old adage about buying at Yom Kippur and selling at Rosh Hashanah? Where? What? Why?

Will these be catalysts for a massive rally? We shall see, and I will believe it when I see it. One thing I do know is that, when this rally comes, it will be powerful because the rubber band to the downside is pulled so tightly that it has to snap soon. Also, it will give people hope that the worst is over, and they will begin to pile into the markets again once their post-traumatic stress disorder (from selling at the bottom) is resolved. By the time this happens, it will be near the end of the up move and it will look so good and tempting that they will then be clamoring to get in.

This is how bear markets work. The tables are turned. The bear sets traps for us instead of the other way around. The bear sets bull traps to catch greedy bulls. Behavioral finance tells us that the majority of traders will be greedy when they should be fearful and vice versa.

We have not seen a true gap down and reversal, indicating that the last of the sellers could no longer take the pain, cried “uncle” and wanted out at any price. This is what people want to see, and they are not getting it. It may not come, but it does appear that there is enough fear to ignite a spark for the next rally. Now is the time to prepare for this and we don’t have to be right there when it happens. We will give up the first 10% and the last 10% of the coming rally to get the middle 80%. Why? Because we don’t like to be stabbed by trying to repeatedly catch falling knives and go through the psychological torment of getting in, getting stopped out, getting in again and getting stopped out, etc. It is too taxing and draws down on both financial and psychological capital.

The rally will come out of the blue when people are just so worn down and sold out that they stand in awe, disgust and regret when they see it. We are overdue in price, and just about right in time for it to happen. Like a watched pot that never seems to boil until you walk away, the rally will catch most people by surprise. In terms of Elliott wave (for all the wavers out there), this will likely be a “B” wave rally that could take the S&P up to 1290 over the next few months. No one really knows for sure when, but we will know it when we see it and we will do one of four things—depending on our position in the markets when it happens. (1) trade with longer time frames, especially if we can catch a trending market ;(2) use this rally to sell all underperforming assets (3) hope that we are lucky enough to catch the middle of this move (4) continually remind ourselves to be in touch with our feelings of greed and fear so that we have courage to get in when it feels a little uncomfortable, and start taking money off the table when it looks and feels safe and comfortable..

Yes...Dow has fallen again by 678.9 points.

At the close Dow at 8500+ points....and this is the beginning of the end or should we say the end of the beginning. Huge impart....and no one is ready to undercut the sentiments.

After a bright start, the index has gone "UP" for the stocks I order, but then towards the end of that, the index turn southa and the index dropped like a ton of weight, casing result being lately.

Cry...also no use now! The trouble with me is that I have the money to buy up the "red ships" lor.

Stock market up-date - the day when the bottom flied off for the Dow.

The main markets around the world are still on the falling mode and whoever buy now is like trying to catch a falling sword with their hands. By the close for US Dow, it has dropped by another record 678.9 points to 8500 points and this is the lowest level in 5 yrs. Whatever the Fed does....it only make the whole situation worse. If this continue....all the people will be out of job soon becoz most businesses will fold-up. The government will not be able to save every company and hence jobs. The worst is still ahead of us....by the look of things. My thinking is that until the election in the US between McCain and Obama is over...whatever Bush does, the situation will bounce back worst.

So ...best to watch and see. To me....the bottom is not far away now. No point...rushing until the main markets eg US, UK, Japan, China and EU has stabilised and started to move upwards. Now it is still not the time...as markets are still not stable. The "yo-yo" impact is still wide and painful if bet wrongly.

With all the bailouts from even the UK and EU governments doing their best to stop the "rot", the rot still set in and eat away the price and valve of the shares. Just one way ticket..."south".
Already the market has lossed more than US$2 trillion and more just in US alone...the markets elsewhere must really be "hurted" too. The impact...is totally unexpected by the world leaders.
Funny is that...this happen between 1 yr. Last year this time...the market touched the biggest capitalisation in history....while now, we are in the pits up to the skin of our teeth caused by the falling price of stock. Even a cut in interest rate by the top G7 countries and China have not help much to stop the meltdown. And the worst of all....this is the situation is getting critical by the day.

No luck for this week yet.

First....the share market dropped like there is no tomorrow from here to US. Just out of this world....after awhile, I just don't bother to go look in the internet to check on the prices of what I have. Just a waste of time....what I have already bought has gone "south" by at least 40% as compared to the beginning of last week. So crazy....even now, the US market has gone "south" after going up at the beginning for more than 200 points....now showing a loss of 100+ points.

For 4D and toto....also gone! close but no cigars hehehe. Well, I have already tune down my spending on these and on shares. Whatever I can get rid off....I will do so, so that I can re-align my portfolio to blue chips. Just no point to hold those "penis stocks" hehehe.

Sat.....4/10

No luck lei.....totally no smell for my 4D luck today. Guess no such luck for many people too. But in S'pore....anyone can become "rich" if he has the luck.

Esp with toto and big sweep, small capital but big earning. Even for 4D...if kena the 1st prize can totally turn life up-side-down lor. Yes....only this month, I got a great feeling I can kena the "big one" soon. And surely...that will change my outlook for life, esp my life.

So....at the moment, I just hang-on to what I have and keep low profile mah.

My part time job as AIA insurance agent.

Have already told my boss last month before this present meltdown that I wish to resign from being an agent.....somehow she didn;t want to hear what I said. Well already 20 year...as an agent but still will end.

And with the present meltdown, things will be much harder for being an AIA insurance agent. Who will want to buy lor? In fact....the first people will find it hard to want buy any insurance. Even if they may buy....most will want to think longer about the whole progress of wanting insurance.

Again on Sat afternoon...both my dist manager the one I report to, told me that she has put my name for training. Then my ex -boss, want to put my name for a manager post. Lagi .....crazy idea considering what AIA's name has gone thru during this meltdown.

Understand that the MAS has drawn out a plan....that for any tremination it is up to the individual company to act to it. Still I have to resigned from it asap. Pointless....mah.