Saturday, December 26, 2009

The last leg for 2009 - last week!

By next week....we shall be welcoming in 2010, so I will be looking forward to try to learn more about trading. Beside that...frankly nothing else to look forward to. All else are false esp for an old man like myself. Don't want to be the old fool wishing upon some useless star and kept on waiting and waiting for things to happen and in the end.....still disappointed. Why meh? Well...I will be the last person on earth for people to want to be with unless they have problems and need my help. So....I don't think I want have this burden in my thought next year when I have both hands full with my own needs. I have to continue to learn about trading plus the ability to have a good mental strength to go with it.

So....2010, will be year for me and it's my last chance to make it. Make it or die trying!!! As failure is never the option!

Friday, December 25, 2009

2009 - review

2009 to me....is a watershed year and at last, I am willing to go out to learn more about how to trade well and to make it as a "trader". Not just to give me...a passive income but to help me "grow" as a trader be it in forex and stocks.

After spending money to attend the courses for both...and also after do small live-trades for both with what I was taught from the courses, I found out that what they really teach is just very fundamental. For that level....doubt anyone can really made any money using them when trading. Yes...true, there are certain basic concepts used but truly if one is to really seriously want to be a so-called "trader" who can have a higher chance of winning...then one must be seriously attend more training or do more self study. Yes...there are lots of this self-help or self study stuffs in the internet for free. That is why....I copied quite a bit into my blog to go thru whenever I need to reflesh my thoughts.

My aim for 2010....is to make it a profitable for me as a "small-time trader" until I am out from my present job. By then...I should have enough experience to go "bigger" as a full-time trader. Frankly...I have got myself about 8 to 9 mths to gain this experience. After that....it is also like no choice but to make it "happen" or to die trying. Don't think.....I will change for a 9 to 5 job unless suddenly even what I supposed to learn also cannot "work". Remember...I have already said that I will have to die trying so it would take a totally different path to change my mind.

From my short experience using the system...I truly believed that with a proper plan and good money management, I should be able to make it "work" for me as a "trader". The only thing left is whether a hugely successful one or a mediocre one! For that, then maybe have to depend on my luck and fate.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Dollar 2010: Rate, and Not Great Expectations

You can stop worrying about the weak dollar—you can also stop hoping about a strong one.

Most currency market analysts expect the U.S. currency to build on its 5-percent December bounce, as traders continue to factor in a stonger U.S. economy and an inevitable Fed tighening. Beyond that, however, a lot depends on just how poorly things go for other major currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen.

"The dollar had become oversold," says Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "I see this as year-end positioning with a little added move by speculators."

Woolfolk may be among the least optimistic about the chance of a strong dollar run in 2010, but that's a very relative statement. Most expect modest gains, but no one is expecting a strong, broad-based rally.

"The dollar is very low; it has to move up," says economist Robert Brusca, chief economist with FAO Economics.

In general, analysts expect the dollar to remain weak against the currencies of commodities-driven economies such as Canada, Australia and Brazil, while making gains against those of Japan, Britain and the European Union.

At the same time, after a multi-year bear market that took the dollar to record lows against the euro and parity with the Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar, analysts say the worst is definitely over.

"There's been a sea change in sentiment," says Boris Schlossberg, of GFT Forex. "The whole thesis began to change when [Novermber] payrolls came out," he explains, referring to the Dec. 4 government report showing that the economy shed just 11,000 jobs, the least in almost two years.

"Fundamental factors will be more favorable for the dollar next year," adds Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo, which is among the most bullish on the U.S. currency.

Fundamental Case

Those fundmaentals turn on this oft-cited scenraio: The U.S. recovery will be swifter and stronger than that of most other G7 countries, prompting the Fed to tighten monetary policy first.

At the same time, the U.S. economy is expected to be less vulnerable to future credit market shocks, which will help remind investors of its traditional safe-haven status.

"Rates are going to follow what's happening in the economy," says David Pierce, director at GPS Capital Markets. "We'll see a little more strength short term, due to continuing economic problems overseas and the weakness in the price of gold lately."

Though the Fed is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate no sooner than mid-year, the central bank is likely to undo some of its non-traditional, quantatative easing measures sooner, perhaps as soon as the first quarter.

"One of the big hurdles is the exiting of the Fed from the MBS [mortgage-backed securties] program," says Jacob Oubina, a strategist with Forex.com. He and others suspect that such a move will add at least half a percentage point to mortgage rates.

"The Fed policy flooded the market with cheap-dollar liquidy," adds Serebriakov.

Though there's some concern that problems in the U.S. commercial real estate market could weigh on the U.S. economy, strategists say there's more potential for trouble abroad, which will provide consistent support for the dollar.

"People are beginning to get concnerned about the sovereign credit values in Europe," says Schlossberg. "Portgual, Greece, Ireland, Spain--all of those countries have massive budget deficits."

When debt and budget alarms went off in Greece and Dubai recently, the message was loud and clear to some.

"A flight to quality [the U.S.]? I think there was probably some of that," says Brusca. "These are mini-events that remind people that there is still risk out there."

One final tailwind for the dollar is the apparent end of the gold rally, which during its heydey prompted many an investor to sell dollars to buy gold.

Exchanging Places

Conventional wisdom would argue all of this would make the dollar a screaming buy, yet no one is predicting anything resembling the great bull run of 1995-2001. That's when the dollar pulled out of its last major skid and went on to hit one record highs against other currencies.

Nevertheless, if the forecasts are reasonably correct, the U.S. currency will end 2010 far away from the lows of 2008, when the dollar hit a record low of about 1.60 against the euro and more than two dollars to the British pound.

Here's a snapshot of how the dollar will play out against the big three.

Euro

"The most bullish case, " says Scholossberg, is 1.30-1.35. Wells Fargo says 1.32 is possible, but a consensus could be made around the 1.35-level, which is hardly a greap leap from the current 1.42.

"Europe has more problems going on than we do," adds Pierce.

European exporters would certainly welcome a weakening single currency, although the European Central Bank is notoriously paranoid about inflation risks. It resorted to little unconventional easing during the crisis and will always err on the side of tighter monetary policy.

Pound

"The U.K. is the weakest link of the G7 economies," says Woolfork, who says a 1.53 level is likely, but a 1.40 level remains possible if both the Fed and ECB raise rates. The most likely range looks to be 1.45-1.50, based on the comments of a half dozen analysts and their forecasts.

Not only has the U.K. economy yet to return to growth, the Bank of England is thought to be considering more quantatative easing, thus making the domestic comditions, more than anything, the key driver of the pound.

There is one, wild card, however.

"Though the U.K. may be the most vulnerable, it is the most levered to the financial markets," notes Schlossberg. "If the rally stalls, it creates a massive amount of pressure on the big firms, but if we see Dow 12,000, then the pound could be back to 1.70-1.75."

Yen

Here interest rate differentials holding the key.

"The Bank of Japan will be at zero rates for as far as the eye can see," says Oubina of Forex.com, whose forecast calls for the dollar/yen at 98 mid-year and 105 by the end of 2010.

Virtually every forecast has the dollar/yen rate back around 100 by year's end, a little more 20-percent from current levels.

"Japan has had a great deal of difficulty pulling out of its deflationary problems," says Wooolfork, who also expects no change in official rates during 2010. "That will leave the yen the first choice for the carry trade," usurping the role of the dollar for much of 2009 as investors toyed with the prospect of another commodities boom.

China is also a consideration.

There it is a case of trade policy rather than exchange rates. With the Chinese currency tied to a basket of currencies, it's value against the dollar is essentially fixed, making it immune to shifting global fundmentals.

The evolution of China's economic recovery will play the determining role, analysts say. By mid-year, when its sustainability is clear, some expect the government to follow up on recent hints and return to a policy of incremental, yearly adjustments, to allow appreciation.

Until then, the dollar will make its mark against the currencies of other major trading partners, even if it is tends toward the unremarkable.

"It may not be that fundamentals are that attractive in the U.S.," says Serebriakov. "There are very few alternatives."

How to make a living trading the forex market

Making a living trading from home is the dream of just about every trader and active investor. Nial Fuller offers his simple trading strategies, without the complex indicators or heavy charts, that can be used by anyone anywhere to make a killing and earn a living.

Nial Fuller was bitten by the trading bug at the age of sixteen, and ever since he’s thought of little else other than how to make a fortune as a home-based trader. He bought his first stock in 2000, when he was just a High School senior, and then spent the next decade chasing his childhood dream. Finally, in 2004, nearly bankrupt and ready to quit, Nial Fuller had an epiphany that changed everything–and since then he hasn’t had a losing year and rarely even a losing month. His trading account has mushroomed . What did Nial Fuller discover that makes him stand out from the rest? How did he achieve trading success and continue to bank large trading returns.? Find out how at www.learntotradethemarket.com

What you won’t find is mathematical formulas, complex technical indicators, heavy charts, or elaborate software demands. What you will find is a simple, straightforward approach to home-based trading that can be used by virtually anyone, anywhere. Unlike most experts teaching traders today, Nial Fuller has actually made it as a home-based trader. In his trading course , Nial outlines his low-risk trading strategies and explains how to use them to trade forex and futures markets–his preferred vehicles.

Nial Fuller deals in reality. If you want to really learn to trade for real profits, not hypothetical, mumbo-back-tested programs, this website is a must. New traders will find great benefit from looking over Nial’s shoulder as he generously shares with the trader, the valuable knowledge he has gained over the years.. You’ve heard what the experts have to say about trading the markets. Now find out how it’s really done from a consummate pro,. Nial runs a private trading website where he shares a wealth of free knowledge, his home study course informaiton is also on the website. www.learntotradethemarket.com

Becoming A full Time Trader -Developing Forex Systems - Nial Fuller

You only need to master one trading setup to be a consistently profitable trader.

Screen time will allow you to master one setup.

After you have mastered one setup “own it” you can add another setup.

This can be an ongoing process developing your own style.

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability. We are all different . Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups. This is also true of exit techniques. Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one. They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.

The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both. At the beginning, or a new beginning perhaps, you will do best choosing to master a setup and follow the trend. If you have been at this game for awhile and are not yet consistently profitable you know what I am saying is correct.

This site contains trading techniques and setups with the intent that it will aid you in creating “your” trading style. My personal trading style is a combination of various styles and setups.

I trust this website will be an exercise in my personal understanding of my own style allowing all to benefit.

Trading Price Action Using Your Intuition

Trading Price Action is truly a game of “gut feel” ” trading strategy” and “price action charts”

The market is one giant poker game, and not only do you need a good
knowledge of the game itself, one must learn to read the emotion of all the
players at the poker table.

As a price action forex trader, I can only offer my personal trading insights and the things I have picked up
over the years that have helped me with trading strategies and my general approach to reading charts..

I can not give you all of the “gut feel” qualities which is a larger part of the ingredient to long term success, this market intuition and emotional element will only come with learning and trading experience. Nobody will want to tell you this though.
I am here to tell you that no matter what trading strategy you learn, it will require screen time, patience and absolute discipline to trade it successfully.

There are 2 levels to be aware of.
1. Part of trading is the strategy
2. Part of trading is the emotional element, and the ability to read the market with “good intuition and feel”.

There is no mechanical approach that I am aware of that makes money long
term, all methods I trade and that others trade that I know of, use a basic
“rule set”, and basic “trading plan condition” to then use pull the trigger on price action related setups etc.

For example, a trading plan may look like the following…

One might have 3 pre conditions,

1. The chart shows a trend within the last 10 days, price has formed a 1 2 3
reversal higher, and is trading near its recent high.
2. The market has pulled back to a support point
3. The market has now formed a “price action signal” condition to confirm a
reversal which may become the entry point.

These may be criteria in a trading plan, but how do we truly filter this,
and say ” ok I will trade this setup, but I wont trade this one, because
of…etc etc.”

As I say to all my students honestly, the greatest traders are in fact, people that can
have a trading plan conditional element, but then use what I call the “gut
feel element” and the “internal emotional filter’, or put simply, they use market experience and screen time to help make quick on the spot trigger decisions.

Thats just a qucik article on the “emotional element” in trading price aciton, and indeed all trading methods, no matter what the educators say, there is always a degree of intuition and awareness that is taking place in our trading, and its time to learn to harness it correctly

Price Action Forex Trading Strategies

What I can honestly tell you is that becoming a successful forex trader requires you to learn at least 3 things.

1. Learn to read Price Action

2 Learn to read Price Action

3. Learn rules 1 and 2.

I’ve been trading this amazing market we call forex for over 7 years now. Boy, it really seems a lot longer! I can’t tell you the number of books, trading courses and mentors I have had to sift through in order to finally reach professional trading status; unfortunately, after looking back, it’s clear that 80% of what I learned was meaningless, while only 20 % has truly helped me develop a winning trading methodology and trading plan. It’s been a long, long road indeed..

Using Price Action methods and developing a strict and accurate money management plan has been my grail to profits. Half my battle is explaining to people that trading is a lot simpler than it appears. People fail because they break too many crucial market rules, and they simply look at markets through the eyes of an uninformed novice. Whilst I’m all for the use of trading methodologies, I don’t believe in mechanical forex systems, and to be frank, I have never seen one work the way it was designed to. My trading strategies involve simple price action analysis, which means I look for certain price patterns and price signals on the charts to be present before entering a trade.

I am passionate about teaching my strategies in order to empower traders by equipping them with the tools and knowledge that will improve their chance of success in this competitive market. My comprehensive forex training home-study course & video mentorship program is designed to train traders to read price action and trade like professionals. My course is filled with solid trading techniques, similar to those used by banks and financial institutions. I am going to teach you powerful and repeatable price action trading setups which I have personally used to profit considerably and consistently.

What makes me different is that I teach you skills for life, not some bogus one-hit-wonder system. We are talking about you going away from my course with a concrete plan of action, powerful entry strategies in hand, and ready to make money. My one promise is that you will finish this course and truly look at trading in a completely different mindset. You’re going to be on your way to Professional trading!

Heres Some of Whats in My Forex Training Course

What I offer is to my knowledge, one of the internets most complete online learning portal with many pages of course content, trading tutorial videos as well as Trading Setups Videos updated on an ongoing basis.

• Advanced Pin Bar Reversal entry

• Inside bar continuations and reversal entry

• The Fakey (inside bar false break) entry

• False breaks from support and resistance

• Hourly chart trend entries

• Low risk trades using intraday price action

• Trendline break entry and exit

• Basic 55% retracements with price action

• Inside bar event areas

• Finding the mean or value point

• Intro to Forex market dynamics,

• Understanding Forex Market behaviour

• Basics of mean reversion.

• Understanding trade setup risk / reward

• How to map short term trends,

• Working with perfect trends

• Using breakouts correctly with price action

• Mapping key market levels and swing points

• False breaks from support and resistance

• Using the 150 and 365 EMA with price action

How to Become Successful at Forex Trading

How Do You Become a Successful Forex Trader?

Most people’s experience in the Forex Market is relatively short and in no way profitable. They hear about the currency market and think it is an easy way to make a lot of money in a very short space of time. Now, I am not saying this can’t be done, because for some this is true, but for the majority it’s certainly not the case. Let me explain in more detail …

In the early stages of most FX trader’s career, the first trading decisions generally come from tips and recommendations from brokers, alert services, forum threads or sometimes even mutual novice trading friends. Then, at some point, traders decide to study the market and attempt to find the perfect system or method to trade with. I am sure you can relate to the following statement; for many traders, the forex market and it’s nuances truly become an obsession that takes up countless hours of searching on the internet and books, forums and DVD’s , in the hope to find the holy grail forex trading system, which they eventually find out, simply does not exist.

Traders develop or buy a system and start trading way too soon. Sometimes it is profitable, but when it has a few losing trades (which is normal), they change the system, read a new trading book, etc. or go back to looking for tips and advice, back to the forums, back to Google, searching for more information. After some time, and after more losses and frustration, most give up and stop trading altogether. Or, they go on the analysing merry-go-round, keep paper trading and never get any financial success from their trading; this is the case for 90% of newbie and intermediate traders.

A few realise that the trading method they are using is not the actually problem and the most important ingredient in their trading is actually they.
In addition, they soon realise that a sound set of trading rules is essential to trading profitably. But if the rules are not followed, they are of no value, and an average trader will have difficulty making a profit with a good trading system. Ironically, a good trader who has skill and a good mind can make a profit with even an average system. Put simply, even with a perfect system, the human mind can stop it making money!

Statistics from surveys of US traders indicate that once a trading methodology is developed by a forex trader, then 80% of the effort in trading is actually trading skills (that includes things like trading psychology and money management).

When the trading system is developed and trading skills are learned, a person starts finally trading properly. Most traders encounter a setback at some stage; either the market conditions change or they don’t follow their rules. However, if good money management is followed, this is not a serious problem. Often, even after winning for several months, after a small set back, many great traders stop trading to evaluate what has happened. This is often a mistake, and is again, the ever-present emotional element which plays in the back of our minds every day we trade. It’s a mistake to interfere with the consistent day to day trading routine, even in the face of losses, the trader has to press on and believe in what they are doing.

Here Some Common Traps Traders Fall Into:
This is where the real decision about the trader’s future is made:
1. They stop trading all together
2. They find a new system, read a new book, and do another course. This can go on forever and successful trading will never happen.
Or
3. They evaluate what really happened. Mostly it will be that market conditions had changed or they didn’t follow their rules.
Then the forex traders who go on to achieve greatness:
(a) Monitor the markets and start trading again but trade small amounts and don’t force trades, they then resume trading normally once they get back on track.
(b) Wait for market conditions that suit their trading style.

This is an important process to go through. Most traders go through this experience 2 or 3 times before they develop the skills to achieve their trading objectives.

Trading success is a result of consistency, discipline and patience and most importantly self belief… When you have a trading plan that involves clean price action strategies, and that is built on practical workable parameters and it suits your personal and financial requirements, and you stick to it, then your forex trading will become more enjoyable and more profitable.

My Forex Trading Course gives a set of trading strategies and rules that help traders develop a trading plan to trade consistently. Click here for information on my forex course.

Good Trading

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tO hAVe FuN wiTH mY liFe aND aLsO wAnT mY loVED oNeS tO hAVE tHE SaME tOO. :) bUt iN rEAL LiFe tHaT sHouLd bE sOOn.